How To Spot A Trend Versus A Fad

How To Spot A Trend Versus A Fad
SHARE
THIS



Nils Vesk (pictured below) is an innovation architect who’s delivered programs for some of the most prestigious organisations in the world, including Microsoft, IBM, Commonwealth Bank and Nestle. In this guest post for B&T, he shows you how to spot a lasting trend that’s not merely just another passing fad…

The importance behind learning to differentiate a trend from a fad is that no business wants to waste time and energy developing a new product, just for it to reveal itself further down the line as a short-lived fad. As such, a key skill any innovator must learn is how to identify the difference between the two early on.

Screen Shot 2018-05-22 at 3.32.12 pm

First things first, a fad can be defined as something that people believed would be a long-term trend, but that then disappeared as people quickly lost interest.

So, what is a trend? And why are they so important in business? Often when people hear of trends, they think of a something that appears overnight, becoming instantly popular, before disappearing in the same manner. In actual fact, trends can be longer-term, in some cases sticking around for many years.

In business in particular, it’s crucial to be able to identify trends that will disrupt your industry and capitalise on them before your competition. The ability to do this will give you the head start, allowing you the opportunity to create new products and services and even create a new market by spotting a gap before others.

When it comes to trends, we can break them down into three compartments: uncertainties, disruptors and trends. In business, it’s important to identify the key uncertainties that could impact our customers and industries as a whole. Following this, it is key to then be able to identify is what disruptors are arising, the impacts that they might have and then finally the specific trends that are emerging around or from these drivers and uncertainties.

Here are the five phases of a trend:

  1. Dawning – an emerging trend
  2. Developing – a trend that is gaining momentum and is being developed by various parties
  3. Developed – a trend that is fully fledged and has hit mainstream interest
  4. Decaying – a trend that has done it’s time and is becoming ‘old’ in the mind of users or customers
  5. Discarded – a trend that is no longer in demand and has been superseded by something more exciting, superior, different or by adding new value

Clearly, it makes no sense to begin working on a developed, decaying or discarded trend, but instead to succeed it’s imperative to jump on a dawning or even early stage developing trends. To become an innovator, we must learn how to scan the business world to discover these dawning trends and potential disruptors.

A number of determinants can affect a trend’s duration, including:

  • Differentiation – This refers to how unique and memorable the new trending product or service may be. Differentiation is more important for some industries than others, and can be critical to their success. Essentially, when assessing an emerging trend ask yourself “Is this unique or really different to what currently exists?” as well as “Is this product/ service remarkable i.e. does it give me something to remark about?”
  • Superiority – How well does the product or service compare to its competitors? It’s important to understand how effective and efficient a product is, whether it could be of more value to your audience, and whether it is more affordable than other similar products on the market.
  • Newness – How long has the product or service been on the market? Do your research and see if there are existing similar products on the market. If similar products do exist, when did they first come onto the scene?
  • Performance – How well does the product perform in relation to customer expectations? Does it do what it is advertised to do? Does this satisfy customer needs or desires?
  • Customer community – How does the user or customer community interact with and use the new product or service? How large is the potential audience of this trend? Communities can play a big part in the success of a product or service, and part of this can sometimes be made up by the ‘why’ of the product. Having a cause creates bigger community participation and trend duration and creates purpose for the product. Also ask yourself “Does the trend exclude a crowd?” Some trends are successful simply because they exclude people and therefore appeals a nice/specific customer group and caters to their specific needs/wants which in turn increases the loyalty of the trending product or service.
  • Aesthetics – This refers to how timeless the design of the product or service experience may be. Will the service and its design still be relevant in a few years?
  • Ground-breaking – Does the product cause a total revolution or a simple evolution? Does it solve/alleviate a problem? Will it change peoples’ life in some way? Will this signal the end of an era or create a new one?
  • Market category – Does the trend, product or service create a new market category? Does it extend on current products and services and take a portion of market share, or does it create an entirely new category?

Once you’ve assessed the trend according to the above criteria, you can use a polar chart to map out the impact that a certain trend may have, which is crucial for businesses when deciding whether a trend is worth pursuing.

Vesk will be hosting ‘The Next Big Thing’ Masterclasses throughout May and June in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane where business leaders will discover the trends that will impact their industry, their team and their customers, and how they can capitalise on them.

Please login with linkedin to comment

Nils Vesk

Latest News

The Misfits Partners With Business Leadership & Culture Experts To Expand Agency Offering
  • Advertising
  • Marketing
  • Media

The Misfits Partners With Business Leadership & Culture Experts To Expand Agency Offering

Independent experience agency The Misfits has recently announced a strategic partnership with cultural change and leadership experts Nancy Hromin and Kate Chaffer. While the company has for a long time operated in the space of creative services, digital and content marketing, film production and events, The Misfits is now broadening this offering to include business […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
TripleLift Expands Into APAC, Naming The Trade Desk’s Henry Shelley As Managing Director
  • Technology

TripleLift Expands Into APAC, Naming The Trade Desk’s Henry Shelley As Managing Director

TripleLift has today announced an expansion in their Asia Pacific (APAC) operations, with Henry Shelley [featured image] appointed as Managing Director, based in Singapore. Fueling TripleLift‘s expansion in APAC is its success in Australia, where the company works with 70 per cent of the top 50 comScore publishers. “As the home to several of the worlds’ […]

Rob Highett-Smith Joins Fiftyfive5 In Newly Created Role
  • Media

Rob Highett-Smith Joins Fiftyfive5 In Newly Created Role

Rob Highett-Smith joins Fiftyfive5 in the newly created role of head of performance measurement. Performance measurement represents one of the three core offer areas at Fiftyfive5 with tracking programs running across 40 countries; representing our fastest growing capability pillar.  Rob joins to lead this capability, which encompasses brand and comms tracking, multi market monitoring, CX and customer satisfaction, as well as other longitudinal programmatic work.   

Customer Messaging Platform Podium Launches In Australia
  • Technology

Customer Messaging Platform Podium Launches In Australia

Podium has continued its international expansion today announcing its launch in Australia. Podium serves more than 90,000 local businesses in the United States, Canada and Australia, and has seen its customer base in Australia almost quadruple to over 3,000 local businesses since the start of the pandemic. Through its SMS-based platform, Podium helps local businesses receive […]

THE EDGE Welcomes New General Manager Emily Copeland
  • Media

THE EDGE Welcomes New General Manager Emily Copeland

Commercial DAB+ hip hop and RnB station, THE EDGE has appointed Emily Copeland, to the newly created role of General Manager. Copeland brings an awesome mix of skills and experience to THE EDGE, including cross-platform media content experience, partnerships and events (including music festivals – remember those?). Copeland also has a stack of achievements to […]

Sustainability 101 With Brianne West, CEO Of Plastic-Free, Eco-Focused Beauty Brand Ethique
  • Marketing

Sustainability 101 With Brianne West, CEO Of Plastic-Free, Eco-Focused Beauty Brand Ethique

Brianne West is the founder and CEO of Ethique, a New Zealand-based sustainable, plastic free and cruelty free skin and hair care range. West sat down with B&T to explore what genuine environmental sustainability looks like, and how brands can better respond to eco-conscious consumers. B&T: Why are we seeing a rise in eco-conscious consumption?    BW: […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Cities connected with lines on a blue globe.
  • Technology

Blis Unveils New Interactive Dashboard That Tracks Consumer Movement In Australia

Blis has today revealed its new Consumer Confidence Pulse — the most comprehensive tracker of its kind — this interactive dashboard builds on its existing trend data around consumer mood to analyse behaviour during the COVID pandemic. The dashboard also now tracks consumer movement over a rolling 13-month period, across 18 retail and lifestyle sectors […]

Australian Seniors Releases ‘Dare To Date’, Second Series Of ‘Life’s Booming’ Podcast
  • Media

Australian Seniors Releases ‘Dare To Date’, Second Series Of ‘Life’s Booming’ Podcast

Following the success of Series One: Grey Nomads, Australian Seniors has launched the second series of the Life’s Booming podcast – Dare to Date.  Hosted by James Valentine (pictured with guests Liz and Barry), Life’s Booming explores the incredible stories and addresses topics important to Australians over 50. Series two titled Dare to Date is a six-part series that covers real-life love, […]

VERSA Announces Two Senior Appointments As Demand For Conversational AI Gains Further Traction
  • Marketing

VERSA Announces Two Senior Appointments As Demand For Conversational AI Gains Further Traction

World-leading conversational agency VERSA has bolstered its team with two senior appointments in response to growing uptake in conversational AI technology across various sectors. Vanessa Tout has been appointed global head of client partnerships and growth, while Michael Oso-Hughes comes on board as design director. Tout joins VERSA CEO Kath Blackham and managing director Michael […]

Patrick Rutkowski Joins Banter
  • Marketing

Patrick Rutkowski Joins Banter

Engagement marketing agency, Banter, has hired Patrick Rutkowski as Creative Technologist, to further bolster the digital and innovation side of the business. Rutkowski joins Banter after having spent the last five and a half years at independent creative agency, The Hallway where he was most recently creative technologist working with the likes of Rheem, Tourism […]

person using mobile application on smartphone, abstract close up of hands
  • Technology

Mobile Advertising Company Kargo Announces New Hires Following H1 Growth In APAC

Kargo has today announced several major growth milestones across the APAC region for the first half of 2021, more than doubling H1 revenue year-over-year with 115 per cent growth. Kargo also ran 41 per cent more campaigns in the region than in H1 2020 and the average campaign size increased by 32 per cent over […]