Recent IAB figures show search still dominates digital spend—but answer engines are coming for a slice. Adgile’s Shaun Lohman warns: don’t rob brand to fund the next performance channel.
The latest IAB Australia data (see chart below) tells us something pretty remarkable: search has consistently accounted for around 45 per cent of total digital ad spend for the past seven years. Despite massive shifts in media consumption, audience behaviour, and technology, that share has remained rock solid.
So, what happens next?
As AI-powered answer engines like ChatGPT and Perplexity begin to commercialise, we’re standing at the edge of a new media era. But it’s not just about what these platforms will offer advertisers—it’s about where the money to fund these opportunities will come from.
And what that means for the future of brand-building.
If search spend is indeed fixed. The squeeze has to come from somewhere else. Search isn’t going anywhere. The IAB data suggests it’s highly likely that search will continue to command around 45 per cent of digital budgets.
But answer engines are here, and they’re promising a faster, smarter way for consumers to find answers, products, and services. As they commercialise, they’ll become a new performance media channel—competing directly with search for advertisers focused on capturing demand.
Here’s the problem: if search remains fixed, where will the budget for answer-engine advertising come from?
The most likely sources are:
Display advertising,: which has barely grown in the past seven years. Often seen as a flexible part of the media mix, display is more susceptible to reallocation—especially as marketers seek greater efficiency and are drawn to new channels that promise smarter targeting and measurable performance.
Offline media budgets: which have already been under pressure. While traditional channels still play a vital role in reach and brand-building, they’re increasingly vulnerable to cuts—particularly when digital alternatives offer more agility, data, and accountability.
This matters because both display and offline media have traditionally played a critical role in brand-building and demand generation. If answer engines soak up more of these budgets—and they’re positioned as performance-driven, lower-funnel media—we could see an even more unbalanced media mix.
The rise of performance media—and the risks that come with it
For years, marketers have been shifting spend towards performance media—channels that focus on capturing existing demand, rather than creating new demand.
Search has led that charge. And now, answer-engines look set to do the same. If answer-engines capture a meaningful share of budget from display and offline channels, we risk further increasing the proportion of media investment focused on harvesting demand.
That might deliver short-term results but it also risks undermining long-term growth, as less investment is made in brand-building activities that plant the seeds of future demand.
Put simply: you can’t harvest what you haven’t planted.
A new performance battleground—but who’s thinking about brand?
This isn’t about dismissing answer engines or search. They have their rightful place and will be powerful tools for many marketers.
But if we continue to tip the balance in favour of lower-funnel performance media, we risk repeating a familiar mistake—sacrificing long-term brand health for short-term returns.
The latest IAB numbers show us that search spend is locked in. The risk is that answer engines won’t eat into that—they’ll look elsewhere.
And if they follow the same performance playbook, that means even more pressure on brand-building budgets.
Final thought: Brands need to act now to protect the future.
As answer engines rise, marketers need to be crystal clear on how they balance performance with brand-building.
And that starts with how we measure success.
Brands need to measure outcomes, not just activities. Measurement must be cross-platform, channel-agnostic, and based on real-time data—because in a rapidly evolving media landscape, yesterday’s results tell you less about tomorrow’s success.
Because in this fast-evolving landscape, the brands that succeed will be those that protect brand investment, create future demand, and make smarter decisions about where to allocate every dollar.
The future of media is already here. The question is: Are we ready to make it work for long-term growth?
Shaun Lohman is the founder and CEO of leading Australian Video measurement platform Adgile Media.
