On July 13th 2024, at a rally near Butler, Pennsylvania, former President of the United States, Donald Trump, was shot in the ear, setting in motion a significant shift in the race to an election that is being described as D-day for US citizens.
But what does the future truly look like on the other side of this huge historic moment in time? How will both parties adapt their messaging? And how will the media’s reactions, both from the left and right side of politics, shape the future of the race for the White House?
According to former Adjunct Professor at Western Sydney University and regular ABC media commentator James Arvanitakis, this moment will define the future of the election, with both parties using it to send their own respective message. While the future is unclear, one thing that isn’t is that disinformation and political discourse will remain solid and ever-radical, with the system “structured in such a way that it drives extremism”.
How does this feed into both party’s messaging?
For years, Trump has positioned himself as a “strongman” capable of standing up to America’s enemies. Progressives have long labelled this notion as “deluded”, pointing to his avoidance of any kind of military service. But, at a time when more US voters have made up their minds and the final say comes down to so-called purple swing states, the coverage of Trump, standing with his fist in the air and blood on his face, just might feed the fire he has been searching for.
“The images in the media now play directly into the strongman image while undermining any counterclaims,” said Arvanitakis. “We can contrast this with the performance of President Joe Biden, who has been increasingly portrayed as feeble, out of touch and verging on experiencing ‘dementia.’ Every stumble is now seen as proof of this – even when it is just a normal part of speech”.
#FPExplained: Shortly after the shooting that injured him, Donald Trump is seen standing up, raising his fist.
The image, according to many, will define his entire presidential campaign.
It could turn the former president from a martyr to a saint in the eyes of his… pic.twitter.com/0upzVaSF4w
— Firstpost (@firstpost) July 15, 2024
With Biden now safely out of the race, the Democrats have a long way to go to build up Kamala, or whoever does take the Democratic seat, as a force strong enough to take on the power displayed by Trump on that now famous moment in history.
A social media-determined election
The other thing that needs to be considered when analysing the impact this will have on the race to the White House, is the power of social media and just how fundamental it is in shaping narratives today.
“While most social media is partisan, you can see how the many memes that have begun to circulate act as a feedback loop to the parties and the way that both Trump and his opponents will position themselves,” Arvanitakis said.
In the wake of the chaos that unfolded, the discourse has been shrouded in conspiracy theories and disinformation. Political commentators have questioned why Secret Service agents didn’t move more quickly, why Trump didn’t have blood on his hands and if there was a second shooter, just to name a few.
If you don’t think that shit was staged? Look at how fast they got trump outta there at just the mention of someone in the crowd having a gun in 2016. Then look at this goofy as shit. pic.twitter.com/zqZMHRO5jT
— Ok (@FirstName736928) July 14, 2024
Trump shooting incident should be questionable fully besides people called it staged &
Trump was hit by Glass fragments not bulletLook at the pictures at trump right ear carefully and the lady giving the signal pic.twitter.com/h0tXm8XZ1E
— dark_resistance 2016 (@MannySa28827709) July 16, 2024
According to Arvanitakis, there is no way to control disinformation or conspiracy theories that they started from the moment it happened. “Haters of Trump stated that he organised this so he could look good. Supporters of Trump argued that this was a Democrat operative”.
Navigating such a complex web of lies, effectively, is difficult because, as Arvanitakis explains, it is not a simple cut-and-paste solution. “It requires two things. The first would be a bipartisan effort to close down further hate speech and the type of conspiracies that follow. We have seen an agreement to tone things down but this is only on the surface level. The second is trust in politicians and the mainstream media – both of which are at an all time low”.
Where to next?
In terms of the media strategy from the parties themselves, this will become, as we have already seen, the core of the Republican campaign. “You see this playing out right now: Trump, the strong man and the ‘man’ of unity, has both Republican friends and enemies lining up behind him. This will be the pitch they take to the election,” Arvanitakis said.
The Democrats, on the other hand, are just working to overcome the “old and tired message” left in the wake of Biden’s recent media appearances. With Harris increasingly presenting a young and fun approach that is designed to appeal to the youth vote.
@msnbc Vice President Kamala Harris dropped an f-bomb as she advocated for young people to press for equality and economic opportunities at an #AAPI event in Washington, D.C. on Monday. “Sometimes people will open the door for you and leave it open,” she said. “Sometimes they won’t. And then you need to kick that f***ing door down.” #politicaltiktok #politicstiktok #politics #newstiktok #news #aapiheritagemonth #kamalaharris ♬ original sound – MSNBC
The American US political climate can only be described as toxic and volitile and both parties are facing calls to “tone it down”. The challenge both are facing is that to galvanise a disillusioned public, each party must make the other look like a clear and present danger. So ultimately, as Arvanitakis muses, anything toned down is likely to be short-term.
“We saw Republicans back down when U.S. Representative Gabby Giffords and 18 others were shot during a constituent meeting in 2011 – but this did not last. I am not hopeful that there will be any long-term easing”.
