ARN’s $200 million bet on Kyle Sandilands and Jackie ‘O’ Henderson’s Melbourne success is turning into one of the riskiest gambles in recent commercial radio history, as dwindling ad revenue, falling audience numbers and a chaotic marketing rollout force the company into major cutbacks.
A year into the KIIS FM duo’s expansion south, the show has been marked by inconsistent messaging through three different campaigns, while Sandilands’ trademark shock jock style continues to alienate Melburnians. New figures obtained by The Age reveal that the show’s declining listenership has hit ARN where it hurts most, its advertising dollars.
In the first five months of 2025, ARN shed $6 million in ad revenue compared with the same period last year, down 13 per cent according to unpublished Guideline SMI figures seen by The Age.
The company’s share of metro ad revenue has fallen from 28 per cent to 24 per cent, losing ground to both Southern Cross Austereo and Nova Entertainment.
Nova, which owns Nova and Smooth, has been the biggest inheritor of the advertiser exodus, now leading the market with a 33 per cent share, up from landing on par with ARN just a year ago. Southern Cross, home to Triple M and The Hit Network, has also grown its share to nearly 32 per cent.
With Melbourne and Sydney responsible for more than 60 per cent of metro ad spend, the financial blow is significant and mounting.
Cutbacks, Redundancies and Radio Royalty on the Chopping Block
ARN has reportedly entered aggressive cost-cutting mode, slashing over 200 roles in six months, offshoring multiple divisions, and cutting top on-air talent.
Among the talent casualties is KIIS talent booker Kirsten Ploog, while the network axed The Zach & Dom Show last month and dropped Mitch Churi from The Pick Up Show in November. Jack Post, longtime co-host of The Christian O’Connell Show, also exited last month after contract negotiations broke down. He has since been replaced by Alex Cullen, who was dismissed by Nine in January following a promotional mishap.
Even ARN’s long-standing Sydney breakfast duo, Jonesy & Amanda, may soon be displaced. The Christian O’Connell Show, a hit in Melbourne, is tipped for a 2026 move to Sydney’s Gold FM. The pair is reportedly pushing for improved contracts, spurred by the Kyle & Jackie O deal that pays $20 million annually.
Shares have also plummeted 36 per cent since January 1.
B&T contacted ARN for comment but did not receive a response prior to publication.
Ratings Slump and Melburnian Backlash
The show’s Melbourne performance has been grim. Since replacing Jase & Lauren, KIIS has lost a third of its breakfast audience, 209,000 listeners. Sydney hasn’t been spared either, with KIIS losing 188,000 listeners, down more than 20 per cent.
Meanwhile, Jase & Lauren, now on rival Nova, have soared to the No.1 FM breakfast spot in Melbourne. When they joined Nova, the station had a 5 per cent share and 480,000 listeners. They’ve since doubled the share to 10.2 per cent and grown the audience to 741,000.
In the latest ratings (Survey 3), Sandilands and Henderson fell another 0.7 points to a 5.1 per cent share, coming dead last among commercial FM breakfast shows in Melbourne, and lost a further 30,000 listeners.
Earlier in the year Sandilands made headlines for raging against management’s direction to clean up the show, telling listeners, “We’re not just going to suck Melbourne off all day, every day.”
The pair has swung back to controversial branding. After a campaign declaring they were “behaving,” ARN is now pushing “Radio Gone Rogue”.
At a recent live Q&A session with Sandilands and Henderson, ARN chief executive Ciaran Davis reportedly described the past year as an “unmitigated disaster.” Sandilands, in turn, blamed ARN for the poor Melbourne launch, stating that the show should have gone national from the start and that the company had underinvested in marketing.
Still, he insisted that the audience would come around in Melbourne.
While the show still holds Sydney’s #1 FM position and boasts over a million listeners, the Melbourne rollout has proven brutally difficult. The once-surefire commercial juggernaut now appears vulnerable in its own backyard.
Speaking when the radio ratings were released earlier this month, ARN chief content officer Duncan Campbell remained diplomatic, stating: “The continued dominance of The Kyle & Jackie O Show speaks to the power of our network, no other breakfast show in the country reaches over a million listeners… While Melbourne remains a competitive market, we’re confident in our long-term strategy.”
But confidence may not be enough. The numbers and advertisers have already started walking. With nine years remaining on their $200 million contract, the network can only be left hoping that gamble turns around before more advertisers defect and more blood is spilled.