Through the power of AI, Adobe has today predicted online shopping during the 2019 holiday season (Nov. 1 through Dec. 31) to reach $143.7bn.

And according to the research, powered by Adobe Sensei, Adobe’s AI and machine learning technology, advertisements will play a significant role in where these dollars are spent.

Fifty per cent of consumers state that ads during the holiday shopping season impact their purchasing decisions while email continues to be the most preferred way to get an offer while holiday shopping.

Smartphone visits to retail sites from social media have tripled in the past three years from four per cent to 11 per cent. However, visits coming from social platforms result in lower conversions compared to other channels like search or email.

Cyber Monday will set a new record as the largest – and fastest-growing online shopping day of the year with $9.4 billion in sales, an 18.9 per cent increase year over year (YoY). Online sales between 7 p.m. and 11 p.m. Pacific Time on Cyber Monday are expected to drive over $3B in revenue, with sales conversions nearly doubling during these golden hours of online retail.

Thanksgiving Day sales are expected to increase by 19.5 per cent, generating $4.4 billion. One out of five dollars this holiday season will be spent during Cyber Week between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday, generating $29 billion or 20 per cent of total online revenue this season. With just 22 days between Cyber Monday and Christmas Day, there are six fewer days of peak holiday shopping days than 2018, translating into almost $1 billion of potential revenue lost due to the abridged time period. The compressed shopping calendar means that retailers will begin sales earlier than ever before, with each day in November and December surpassing $1 billion in online retail sales for the first time.

The most anticipated gifts include game consoles such as Nintendo Switch Lite and SEGA Genesis Mini, as well as toys like Owleez, Blume Dolls, Candy Locks, Kindi Kids, and LOL Surprise OMG Swag. Top selling video games are expected to include Pokémon Shield/Sword, Shenmue 3, Jedi Fallen Order, Death Stranding and Call of Duty: Modern Warfare.

“The compressed shopping cycle will see retailers launching offers far earlier than ever before,” said Adobe head of marketing and customer insights John Copeland.

“With fewer days to spend, Adobe Analytics predicts that BOPIS (buy online, pick up in store) will be more popular than ever before, with revenue from this delivery method doubling in the week before Christmas as shoppers rush to complete their gift lists.”

Additional predictions include:.

• A shopping mall in your pocket: Americans will spend $14 billion more on their smartphones compared to last year, accounting for 36 per cent of all online sales, a 20 per cent increase in share YoY, and 57 per cent of visits, an eleven per cent increase YoY. With retailers optimizing for mobile, online spend on smartphones will increase from 30 to 47 cents per minute, a 63 per cent jump since 2016. Consumers will continue to use desktops to make research-heavy purchases like furniture, electronics and appliances, resulting in a 28 per cent higher AOV than on smartphones.
• A BOPIS bonanza: BOPIS orders have experienced strong growth, with 39 per cent more BOPIS orders expected to be placed this year compared to 2018. BOPIS share of revenue is anticipated to double during the week before Christmas as panic buying sets in. Thirty-seven per cent of consumers said they are planning to use BOPIS this season while 82 per cent of BOPIS patrons say they will likely shop for additional items when picking up their online order.
• Larger retailers win the retail battle: While online giants will see revenue increase by 65 per cent, smaller retailers will only enjoy a 35 per cent boost. Large retailers (annual online revenue of over $1B) will be the clear winners on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, with smaller retailers (less than $50M annual online revenue) failing to drive strong online traction despite the growing awareness of Small Business Saturday. Additionally, large retailers will benefit from higher conversion rates, with customers visiting their sites 32 per cent more likely to convert versus smaller retailers (23 per cent).