With the AFL grand final just a few days away, and this marking the first non-Victorian final since 2006, the potential for record-breaking viewership in non-traditional markets is off the charts. In this op-ed, Peter Stowe, head of trading at Sanctuary Media Group, discusses this potential and what is contributing to it.
Saturday’s AFL Grand Final is going to be unlike anything we’ve ever seen before—think State of Origin, NSW vs QLD, but on an even grander scale! Both the AFL and Channel Seven are gearing up for potentially record-breaking ratings for this weekend’s showdown between the Sydney Swans and Brisbane Lions.
Viewership in Victoria, Adelaide, Western Australia, and Tasmania is a given, regardless of who’s playing. However, it’s the inclusion of the non-traditional AFL markets (north of the Barassi Line—yes, it’s a real thing) in New South Wales and Queensland that has created the perfect storm for Seven to deliver one of the biggest broadcast events of the year.
In recent years, when teams interstate teams like the Lions, Swans, West Coast Eagles, and GWS played in the Final, there are always notable increases in audience numbers in their respective markets, with casual ‘bandwagon’ viewers tuning in. While there has been talk of Melburnians switching off the game due to the unusual match-up, considering the form both teams are in, and remembering that both teams were Grand Final runners-up in 2022 and 2023 respectively, I can’t see this happening. Unless we see a one-sided affair like in 2019, no one is turning away from their TV or smart device on Saturday.
Another reason I believe we could see previous viewership records fall is the overwhelming number of supporters both Sydney and Brisbane have. Roy Morgan Research confirmed this week that the Swans and the Lions topped the annual Roy Morgan AFL supporter ladder with a combined 1,337,000 supporters. It’s surprising to read that the Lions actually leapfrogged Collingwood for second place this year, following their first Grand Final appearance in 18 years in 2023.
And let’s not forget Pregame Perry! Katy Perry, a global mega superstar, will be performing on centre stage before the bounce. I honestly believe viewers will tune in just to watch her performance, and why not? The AFL is promising the biggest pre-game entertainment they’ve ever done, with over 300 production crew putting it all together.
So, what’s my prediction? This should be the biggest AFL Grand Final ever. I’m predicting we’ll get close to 2005 viewership figures—my calculated expert guess (little like Antony Green on election night, crunching the numbers state by state) based on the previous two grand finals and the match going down to the wire, – 4.150 million viewers nationally (metro capitals, regional markets, and live streaming), with a new record set for live streams on 7Plus.
…Oh, and the Swans by 21.
