By 2030 Computers Will Be Smarter Than Humans (& 19 More Clever Disruptive Facts)
Dr Ross Honeywill (pictured below) is a social scientist and co-author of Roy Morgan’s recent State of the Nation Media Report. Here, for no particular reason, he offers 20 of his big futuristic tips for a disrupted world.
Think computers will outthink humans and cancer could well be eliminated? Well, according to the good Doctor, you may well be right. Check out some of his predictions below:
- Uber is just a software tool, they don’t own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world
- Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don’t own any properties
- In the US, young lawyers can’t get jobs. Using IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90 per cent accuracy compared with 70 per cent accuracy when done by humans
- Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, four times more accurate than human nurses
- By 2030 computers will be more intelligent than humans
- Autonomous cars: By 2025 the car industry will have reached its inflection point. You won’t own a car anymore. You will call a car via an app on your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. Our kids will never get a driver’s license and will never own a car. The disabled & elderly won’t need a license
- It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95 per cent fewer cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year
- While traditional car companies hang on and build better cars, tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) are just building computers on wheels
- Car insurance will become 100 times cheaper. The car insurance business model will disappear
- Electric cars will become mainstream by 2025. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity
- Health: Companies are building a medical device (called the “Tricorder” from Star Trek) that works with your phone, analysing your retina scan, your blood sample and your breath
- It analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be so cheap that everyone with a phone will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly free
- 3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster
- By the end of this year new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You will 3D scan your feet, and print your perfect shoe at home
- In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that’s being produced will be 3D printed
- Business models: If it doesn’t work with your phone, dump it
- There is an app called “moodies” which can already tell what mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it’s revealed when candidates are telling the truth and when they’re lying
- Bitcoin may well become the default reserve currency … globally
- Social Blockchain will ascribe a trust score to everyone – you will need a score of 4 or more to book a flight
- Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education
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