Global Adspend To Jump 5% in 2015

Global adspend will grow 4.9% to reach US$545 billion in 2015, according to ZenithOptimedia’s new Advertising Expenditure Forecasts.
The global economy is expected to improve (the IMF predicts 3.8% global GDP growth in 2015, up from 3.3% in 2014), but advertising faces a tough year-on-year comparison after the Winter Olympics, World Cup and US mid-term elections in 2014. Adspend growth will therefore be slightly below 2014’s 5.1%.
2016 will be a quadrennial year – with the Summer Olympics, US Presidential elections and the UEFA European Football Championship – and we expect these events to propel adspend to 5.6% growth that year, before it slips back to 5.2% in 2017 in their absence.
Transition to mobile plays to the strengths of social
Mobile is by some distance the main driver of global adspend growth, and we forecast it to account for 51% of all new advertising dollars between 2014 and 2017. We expect mobile advertising to grow by an average of 38% a year between 2014 and 2017, driven by the rapid spread of devices, innovations in ad technology and improvements in user experiences.
However, mobile’s share of adspend remains well behind its share of media consumption. Mobile will account for 6.2% of all adspend in the US this year, while eMarketer estimates it will occupy 23.3% of media consumption time. This is partly because a lot of conventional display advertising does not work well on mobile. Compared to desktop display, mobile banners take up more screen space, are considered more intrusive, and are more likely to annoy consumers than engage them. Because mobiles don’t accept cookies, retargeting and tracking from the ad to the purchase is usually impossible.
There’s one area, though, where digital display has proved very successful on mobile, and that’s social media. Facebook and Twitter have rapidly restructured their operations for mobile consumption and advertising, and between them are on track to capture 33% of all mobile adspend in 2014. This is well above their 10% share of all digital adspend. Their ads are designed to blend seamlessly into the content feed – they look native rather than intrusive. They can track all their users’ media consumption within their apps, and can tie that into their desktop activity through their login details. Social media provides a great example of how to adapt to mobile.
Transition to programmatic has given a sharp boost to traditional display
Agencies are swiftly adopting programmatic buying, which allows them to target display ads accurately and efficiently. The technology has recently evolved to deliver better premium, brand-building experiences. This has provided a sharp boost to ‘traditional’ digital display, as well as video and social. Growth in traditional display leapt from 14% in 2012 to 18% in 2013, and we estimate it at 26% in 2014, its fastest rate of growth since 2007.
Around half of all display is bought directly by advertisers, most of them small local companies spending only a few thousand dollars a year. These currently have little access to the programmatic marketplace. Most programmatic technology has been designed for large-scale campaigns, and while a few companies are trying to adapt programmatic buying for small businesses, these attempts are at early stages. As technology evolves to bring the advantages of programmatic buying to small businesses we can expect another boost to traditional display spending.
Eurozone slowly improving – periphery growing again – held back by the core
Global adspend growth is being restrained by weakness in Japan and the Eurozone. Japan’s seemingly intractable economic problems limit its ad market to 2% to 3% annual growth, and we don’t expect it to improve over our forecast period. The Eurozone, however, is poised to end 2014 with its first year of growth since 2010, with further improvement likely over the next few years.
Adspend across the Eurozone fell by 15% between 2007 and 2013. The worst hit markets were at the periphery – Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland lost 49% of their adspend over this period – France and Germany held their ground, shrinking by just 3%.
However, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland all began to make strong recoveries in 2014, and over the next few years we expect them to substantially outperform the Eurozone average, growing at 5.4% a year through to 2017. Their recovery will help Eurozone adspend grow 0.8% in 2014, a substantial improvement on its 2.9% decline in 2013. Meanwhile the core economies of France, Germany and Italy (which together account for about two thirds of the Eurozone economy) are stagnating. We forecast adspend in France to shrink at an average rate of 0.3% a year between 2014 and 2017, while Germany grows by just 1.3% and Italy by 1.5%, below the Eurozone average of 2.0%.
Falling oil prices exacerbate conflict in Russia and Ukraine
The Ukraine crisis has disrupted advertising in Eastern Europe. Russia has had trading sanctions imposed on it, and has retaliated with its own. International investors have withdrawn their capital, and the government has imposed restrictions on foreign involvement in the economy. This has coincided with a sharp drop in the price of oil, Russia’s main export. After many years of double-digit adspend growth, Russia’s ad market is forecast to grow just 1.8% this year and 1.1% in 2015, followed by 4.6% growth in 2016 and 9.2% in 2017.
The crisis has unsurprisingly had a much greater effect in Ukraine, where violence has disrupted distribution chains and frightened away foreign investors, including big advertisers. We expect adspend in Ukraine to fall 49% this year and 10% in 2015, followed by 6% recovery in 2016 and 2017 from a greatly reduced base.
“Mobile technology is creating new opportunities for brands to build relationships with consumers, while programmatic buying is making brand communication cheaper and more effective. Social media provides a strong example of how to advertise effectively on mobile platforms, and we expect mobile marketing to develop further as other media learn from this example,” said Steve King, ZenithOptimedia’s CEO, Worldwide.
Latest News

What It Takes To Help Build Brand Trust Online In 2021
By Suzanne Mitchell, Senior Director of Marketing at GoDaddy Australia As 2021 dawns in Australia, it does so with greater stability and hope for businesses and individuals than since the pandemic intensified locally last March. The Covid-induced digital transformation boom has created, in its wake, a hyper-individualised world whereby audiences have more control over what, […]

Mumpower Launches Inaugural ‘Vote On Purpose’ Australian Business Awards 2021
To celebrate brands going “above and beyond to act with purpose”, Mumpower has announced its first-ever consumer choice awards. The ‘Vote on Purpose’ Australian Business Award 2021 aims to crown Australia’s favourite purpose-driven company, with Mumpower now calling on both corporations and Mum shoppers to nominate a value-led company or a specific brand campaign that […]

BREAKING: Justin Drape Departs The Monkeys
B&T delivers a breaking news industry scoop. And, trust us, this time we're 79.98% certain it's even correct.

Outbrain Signs Three-Year Deal With Australian Community Media
Outbrain signs deal with Australian Community Media. Discover the brains behind the deal in this insightful synopsis.

Stan Sport Subscription Price Revealed
Sports fans will have to pay $10 a month to sign up for Stan Sport when it launches later this year, according to reports. The Nine-owned Sydney Morning Herald, is today reporting that Stan (also owned by Nine) will offer Stan Sport as a supplementary service, meaning fans must also have a subscription to Stan’s […]

Guardian UK Honours Kamala Harris Inauguration With Full-Page Ad, Via Uncommon
Once again the power of print is on show here. It's also on show for those who enjoy craft using papier-mâché.

Sitecore Secures US$1.2B In Funding
Sitecore has secured $US1.2 billion in funding. Said to be prioritising internal chocolate river and flying elevator.

Mintel Announces Global Consumer Trends For 2021
It's the latest global consumer trends report that, as you'd expect, continues to be bad news for airport duty frees.

2021 Data Predictions: What To Expect In The Year Ahead
Once again, data set to join omnichannel and full-service as the advertising industry's most ubiquitous words.

Sarah Wilson Launches New PodcastOne Australia Series
You have to hand it to Sarah Wilson, doesn't eat sugar AND has so far refrained from murdering anyone.

David Beckham Leads Star-Studded Adidas Football Promo, Using WhatsApp
David Beckham - women want him, men want to be him. Despite his wife constantly taking all the wardrobe space.

Morse Micro Appoints Milk & Honey PR To Enhance Brand Identity
Have absolutely no idea what Morse Micro even do? Discover the power of PR by reading this submitted press release.

Metro Commercial Radio Ad Revenues Down 10.4% In December Quarter
Kyle forced to eat beans from a tin in fingerless mittens as the great plague continues to savage ad revenues.

Endemol Shine Announces Leadership Shakeup
Endemol Shine announces management shakeup. Still no news on the enduring appeal of the actual edamame, however.

Stan Inks Exclusive Content Deal With Walter Presents
Stan inks latest content deal that unfortunately doesn't include Best Of Red Faces or Ask The Leyland Brothers.

Bohemia Appoints Chloe Schneider As Head Of Content
Chloe Schneider joins the Bohemia team and provides DIY press pic thanks to local passport photo booth.

News Media Bargaining Code Remains “Unworkable” For Facebook
Sure, you may not be reading any of B&T's News Media Bargaining Code coverage, but you have to admire our persistence.

Oz Premiers, PM Share Lamb Chops In Berlin Wall Art Parody, Via The Monkeys
Look, it's the second instalment of the lamb ad. And it's even better than the first, like Radiohead's second album.

UnLtd Board Welcomes Verizon Media MD Paul Sigaloff
Verizon's Paul Sigaloff joins the UnLtd board. Forced to sit on milk crates until arrival of leatherette swivel chair.

Sorrell Grabs Another One As MediaMonks Merges With German Auto Agency Staud Studios
Sir Martin invests in new set of lederhosen and felt alpine hat after snaring latest German agency.

Shutterstock Reveals Visual Trends 2021
Global creative platform Shutterstock has launched the 10th anniversary edition of its annual Creative Trends Report, highlighting the trends that will inspire creative expression and ingenuity in 2021. Announcing the report, Shutterstock creative director Flo Lau said that, after the year that was, the company was encouraged by the “positivity, originality, and resilience displayed by […]

Ogilvy Australia CEO David Fox To Head Middle East & North Africa Office
David Fox hurriedly learning where Tunis and Marrakesh even are after landing North Africa-Middle East role.

Vic Gov Chooses QMS For Its Holidaymaker Fire Warnings
It wouldn't be a B&T newsletter without the latest outdoor news. Well, save for the past four that is.

Jobs On The Rise: 2021’s Looking Good For Marketers, Digi Pros, Podcasters & Bloggers
It's the latest hot jobs report! Get set for that unsettling, stomach churning nausea feeling if yours ain't on it.

Have We Entered Peak Podcasting? 2021 Predictions
This columnist asks have we reached peak podcasting? We've definitely reached peak cavoodles, Aperol Spritz & man buns.

Lenovo Turns Aussie Tech Review Into A Death Metal Song
By playing this death metal song backwards you may conjure Satan himself, or really annoy the shit out of colleagues.

Are Media’s BEAUTY/Crew Unveils Seasonal Digital Issues
Look, here's the latest industry beauty news that'll have your sagging epidermis glowing by the end of the third paragraph.

Bastion Collective Launches New Interactive Experience Agency Bastion Interactive
Bastion Collective launches new arm, Bastion Interactive, which is a specialist interactive experience agency headed up by ex DDB Tribal Managing Director.

Major US Networks ‘Boycott’ Trump Farewell Address
Outgoing and twice impeached President Donald Trump released a pre-recorded farewell as he departed Washington. But many of the US’ major networks didn’t show it. Trump was banned from Facebook and Twitter in the wake of his supporters’ attack on the US Capitol on 6 January. His personal account on YouTube has also been suspended […]

Facebook Journalism Program Helps News Publishers Find New Subscribers
New data from Facebook shows that an initiative aimed at supporting local news publishers is showing early signs of success. Australian and New Zealand publishers participating in the Facebook Journalism Project’s Reader Revenue Accelerator in 2019 and through 2020 secured more than 24,000 new paying subscribers and more than 160,000 new loyal readers (whether through […]