Prophet’s modelling of 320,000 BYD test drives found marketing drives 40 per cent of EV demand but efficiency gaps of up to 20x mean most brands are backing the wrong channels.
The analysis for BYD forms part of Prophet’s cross-channel demand effectiveness partnership with the Seven Network. The partnership has seen Prophet’s Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM) platform deployed across Seven’s and SCA’s assets to give brands a more accurate and complete measure of cross-channel effectiveness.
As part of the partnership, Seven provided an opportunity for a number of brands, including BYD, to participate in an innovative marketing initiative. The selected brands each received $2 million worth of advertising inventory across Seven. Following the SCA and Seven merger, the study was expanded to include audio advertising, providing additional insight into the impact of cross-channel media investment.
The findings demonstrated the compounding effect of sustained media investment over time. While macroeconomic conditions also significantly influenced EV demand, the study demonstrated that sustained media investment created both immediate demand and longer-term brand effects.
BYD partnered with Prophet to also understand which media channels were creating demand. Prophet built a digital clone of the BYD business, enabling it to conduct hypothetical simulations and experiments before implementing changes and allocating budget in the real world.
Efficiency differences of up to 20x were identified across the media mix.
High-reach formats, including linear TV, BVOD and out-of-home, delivered the strongest contribution to demand creation and were in the top-ranked most cost-efficient channels for lead generation. Audio, including SCA’s Hit and Triple M linear and digital networks and LiSTNR, generated approximately three times its proportional contribution to demand, despite receiving a smaller share of investment.
The analysis found that the channels creating demand were not always those receiving credit for conversion.
Prophet incorporated more than 86,000 macroeconomic variables into its model via its Prophet Library. That included fuel prices, consumer confidence and employment trends, allowing BYD to isolate the impact of media from the broader macro forces shaping EV demand.
The impact of external economic forces, including consumer confidence and employment trends, were quantified against purchase intent. It reinforced that 63 per cent of EV demand is shaped by broader economic confidence, not just media activity alone.
The model now allows BYD to test future investment decisions before marketing budget is committed. Rather than optimising media channels in isolation, investment decisions can be evaluated against the behaviour of the broader consumer demand system.
“Marketing measurement has been noisy for a long time. A digital clone of a business cuts through it. BYD now has a replica model of its business that ingests 86,000 macro signals – and every dollar of media and the full behavioural mix – and answers the only question that matters: ‘what happens if we do this instead?’ The 20x efficiency gap we uncovered wasn’t a finding, it was a starting point,” Prophet chief executive Jordan Taylor-Bartels said.
BYD chief marketing officer Kate Hornstein added: “As a new entrant, growth has never been about simply making noise. It’s about building confidence in a category evolving at speed. Prophet helps provide a clearer understanding of what broader market influences are driving behaviour, and where brand, media and customer intent are working together. That clarity allows us to make smarter investment decisions, strengthen our connection with Australian customers, and continue pushing the category forward.”
Seven Network national television sales director Katie Finney said Seven’s partnership with Prophet has allowed it to deliver an exclusive opportunity for brands to optimise its marketing strategy.
“The results of this independent study demonstrates what we already knew when we partnered with Prophet. Total TV doesn’t just drive awareness – it fuels brand growth at scale, turning brands into category killers while simultaneously delivering short-term results such as increased test drives and sales. I am looking forward to sharing more from the Seven component of the study in July,” she said.
