WARC’s has predicted Alphabet, Amazon and Meta will control 55.8 per cent of the ad market this year and 60 per cent by the end of the decade excluding China.
WARC also found that global ad spending is on course to grow 7.4 per cent this year to to $1.17trn, a marked upgrade of 1.2 percentage points (pp) from WARC’s June forecast. It put the growth down to “exceptional” second quarter performance.
A further rise of 8.1 per cent is forecast next year, to $1.27 trillion (that’s US$127,000,000,000,000 or AU$194,276,980,000,000), while growth of 7.1 per cent in 2027 would push the market’s value to $1.36 trillion (AU$2.08 trillion)—a doubling in size since the pandemic.
However, this love is not spread equally—a point not lost on many in the Australian ad industry—with nine in ten dollars entering the ad market go towards online-only platforms.
Social media—the largest single advertising medium globally—is drawing a plurality (40.6 per cent) of new ad dollars, while non-retail search (22.2 per cent) and retail media (21.5 per cent) each account for around a fifth of growth.
“This means that legacy media owners—even those with online properties in their portfolios—are competing over the course of the year for the equivalent of what Facebook makes in an average month,” wrote WARC in a release.
Of all new ad dollars entering the market this year, two in five are going to a social media platform, one in five is going towards search advertising, and one in five is being paid to retail media platforms.
“Global ad spend is growing rapidly, with digital-first platforms capturing almost all the new money. Despite economic headwinds, including disruption to global trade and reduced purchasing power among consumers, brands are doubling down on Meta, Alphabet and Amazon, while emerging players like TikTok are growing fast but from smaller bases,” added James McDonald, director of data, intelligence and forecasting, WARC.
Social Spend Goes Gangbusters
Social media ad spend is projected to rise 14.9 per cent this year to a total of US$306.4 billion (AU$468 billion), equivalent to over a quarter of all advertising spend in 2025. Further growth of 12.8 per cent and 11.9 per cent, is forecast next year and into 2027, by when the social market is expected to be worth US$386.9 billion—equal to 28.5 per cent of all ad spend and AU$591 billion.
Within this, Meta is expected to record growth of 14.8 per cent this year, with a total of US$184.1 billion (AU$282 billion) accounting for 60.1 per cent of all social media spend and 15.7 per cent of all ad spend worldwide. Meta’s share of the social market is expected to dip to 59.3 per cent by 2027, owing to continuing growth of TikTok over the forecast period 2025-2027, though its share of total ad spend will still rise to 16.9 per cent.
Instagram is still growing at a faster pace than the core Facebook platform, with growth averaging 16.4 per cent over the forecast period compared to an average rise of 10.4 per cent for Facebook.
TikTok continues to outpace both platforms, however, gaining market share in the process. Ad spend on TikTok is expected to average 21.6 per cent over the forecast period, drawing 11.7 per cent of all social media spend in 2027 (up from a share of 10.3 per cent this year).
Search Rises Amid Uncertainty, Amazon Dominates Growing Retail Media Landscape
Search advertising spend is set to rise by an anticipated 10 per cent this year to US$253.2 billion (AU$387 billion)—equivalent to a fifth of all advertising spend. Google is the dominant player, with anticipated ad revenue of $217.8 billion ($331 billion), or 86 per cent of the search market in 2025. This growth comes as the company faces a US antitrust hearing this week over a potential monopoly of the online ad market.
Advertising spend on retail media platforms is set to grow at an average rate of 12.6 per cent over the forecast period, though this is a marked slowdown from previous years. Retail media ad spend is on course to rise 13.7 per cent this year to a total of US$175 billion (AU$266 billion)—a 14.9 per cent share of global spend.
At an anticipated US$62 billion (AU$94 billion) in 2025 (up 18.7 per cent year-on-year), Amazon accounts for over a third (35.4 per cent) of the retail media market and 5.3 per cent of all ad spend, though its share of both is rising.
Radio, TV, News Set For Big Dips
Five channels have recorded a decline in ad spend since the pandemic when measured in real terms, including magazines (-49.9 per cent), newspapers (-45.8 per cent), broadcast TV (-35.2 per cent), online classified (-25.4 per cent) and broadcast radio (-17.7 per cent).
Although radio is set to record a dip, overall audio spend is likely to be up marginally (+1.4 per cent) come 2027, with online audio spend tracking two-and-a-half times higher. This is being driven by a trebling in podcast spend as listening habits changed over the period.
Despite video-on-demand (VOD) spend trebling over the period, total TV in 2027 is still expected to be down by 16.7 per cent in real terms compared to 2020, when production was heavily disrupted and has struggled to fully recover since. Conversely, real ad spend on YouTube is projected to be 85.4 per cent higher in 2027 versus 2020.
Overall, Alphabet’s real ad revenue is set to be up by two thirds over the period, while Meta’s is set to double. Amazon’s retail platform is the stand-out performer, with real ad revenue in 2027 three times higher than in 2020, when enforced lockdowns drove shopping online.
Taken together, the Amazon, Alphabet and Meta triopoly is on track to record real growth of 89.1 per cent between the pandemic and the end of the forecast period, almost five times faster than all other media owners combined.
