Global ad spending in 2026 is forecast to grow 11.9 per cent in 2026, according to WARC, to a total of US$1.34 trillion (AU$1.93 trillion).
The 2026 surge comes off the back of successive 10 per cent increases in ad spend in 2024 and 2025.
Advertising investment, WARC said, continues to grow despite consumer pressure and geopolitical uncertainty.
Corporate investment in AI and major events including the the Olympics, FIFA World Cup, and US mid-term elections have all helped spur the increased growth this year.
WARC cautioned, however, that “further escalations of global tensions” pose potential downside risks.
Social media, retail media and search are the main beneficiaries of the increased growth.
Social media is set to register the strongest growth in ad spend this year, up 21.3% to $394.6bn, and is on course to exceed $500bn in 2028.
Video on-demand is up 15.1% to $48.4 billion. Retail media is up 14.3% to $202.1 billion, search is up 14.2% to $295.7 billion and digital OOH is up 13.7% to $21.7 billion.
Together, social, search and retail media will account for 66.4 per cent of total global ad spend in 2026, rising to 70 per cent in 2028.
Performance channels, WARC said, are continuing to benefit as uncertainty becomes the new norm.
Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are set to take a combined market share of 59.7 per cent of global ad spend (excluding China) this year – equivalent to $659.6 billion. This is predicted to rise to 61.5 per cent, or $804.1 billion, in 2028.
However, WARC is forecasting radio investment to dip 1.9 per cent and publishing investment to drop 2.4 per cent.
Technology and electronics is forecast to be the fastest growing product category this year, rising 20.7 per cent compared with 2025.
This is followed by travel and transport up 19.3 per cent and automotive up 17.8 per cent.
It expects social media to account for 40.2 per cent of all tech and electronics spend in 2026.
WARC said it expects ad spend growth to moderate in 2027, rising 8.4 per cent to $1.46 trillion, reflecting tougher comparables and a normalisation from the exceptionally strong growth seen in recent years.
In 2028, ad spend will increase by a further 7.9 per cent to $1.57 trillion – putting the market on course to be 2.3 times larger than it was a decade ago in 2019.
“These are unusual times for advertising. Investment is accelerating even as many consumers face cost-of-living pressures and become more cautious with spending. This apparent contradiction reflects an increasingly uneven economy, where growth – particularly from the AI boom – is benefiting some companies, sectors and consumers more than others,” said Suzy Young, head of WARC media data.
Unusual times indeed.
