In this exclusive op-ed, Shai Luft argues the Federal Government’s proposed Capital Gains Tax reforms risk creating unintended consequences far beyond housing, potentially discouraging the next generation of entrepreneurs from building independent agencies, publishers and media businesses. The Bench Media co-founder warns the changes could accelerate consolidation across Australia’s media and marketing sectors, reducing competition, innovation and diversity of thought at a time when younger Australians are already facing mounting economic pressures.
Housing affordability needs serious reform. Few would argue otherwise.
Younger Australians are being squeezed by rising property prices, slower wage growth and an economy that increasingly feels harder to get ahead in.
But there’s a risk the proposed Capital Gains Tax (CGT) changes announced in the Federal Government’s budget, create unintended consequences well beyond property investment, particularly across Australia’s independent media, marketing and creative sectors.
And ironically, much of that impact may fall most heavily on younger Australians themselves, because they are the people who will be starting and building the next generation of agencies, publishers, media businesses and creative companies over the next decade.
One of the stranger contradictions in the current debate is that existing property wealth accumulated under previous tax settings remains largely protected, while the long-term incentives for younger Australians to build businesses and create future wealth are becoming less attractive.
At the same time, younger Australians are already dealing with rising housing costs, higher living expenses, growing government debt and increasingly uncertain career pathways in industries being rapidly reshaped by AI and automation.
That should concern anyone serious about intergenerational equity, the Government included.
Because there’s a meaningful difference between passive asset appreciation and building an agency, publisher or media business from scratch over 10 or 15 years. And while the policy focus may be housing, the impact could end up accelerating consolidation across agencies, publishers and media businesses in ways that should genuinely concern advertisers and marketers.
Because independent agencies and publishers play a critical role in keeping the industry competitive.
They challenge larger incumbents and pioneer new models. They move faster, take risks and often force the broader market to evolve. Much of the innovation in media, creative and marketing services historically hasn’t come from the largest and safest players. It has come from ambitious challengers with something to prove.
Australia’s media and marketing industry has consistently punched above its weight globally precisely because of this culture.
Some of the country’s most successful agencies, publishers and media businesses started as small independents built by founders willing to back themselves against much larger competitors. Over time,
many became major employers, export businesses and globally recognised brands that helped establish Australia’s reputation as a world-class creative and strategic market.
The real beneficiaries of that ecosystem are advertisers, marketers, employees and consumers.
Independent agencies create competitive pressure and often deliver the kind of entrepreneurial thinking and service models that larger businesses struggle to replicate. Independent publishers create media diversity and original journalism in an environment increasingly dominated by global platforms. Challenger businesses force incumbents to improve, innovate and stay commercially sharp.
In many ways, they are exactly the kind of knowledge-based businesses governments keep saying they want Australia to create more of.
Which is why the broader signals behind these reforms matter. Because incentives shape behaviour, and over time, behaviour shapes industries.
If building independent businesses becomes relatively less attractive compared to safer corporate pathways, passive investment or early acquisition, the industry will inevitably produce fewer challengers, less experimentation and ultimately less innovation.
And the people most likely to rethink taking that risk are not established founders who have already built businesses. It’s the next generation currently deciding whether to leave secure jobs, back themselves and try to build something independently.
Large holding companies and global platforms will survive these changes comfortably. The real pressure will be felt by younger entrepreneurs and future challengers deciding whether the personal and financial risk of building an independent business still stacks up.
And over time, advertisers are left with a more consolidated industry, fewer challenger businesses, less competitive pressure and ultimately less diversity in thinking.
That may not sound dramatic initially, but Australia’s media and agency sector is already moving through significant consolidation. Some consolidation is inevitable and healthy. Too much of it risks weakening one of the things that has historically made the local industry strong: ambitious independent businesses with a genuine point of difference.
The irony is that Australia constantly talks about wanting a more innovative and productive economy while often making entrepreneurship feel increasingly irrational for younger Australians.
We say we want more globally competitive Australian businesses, more innovation and more knowledge industries. Yet many policy conversations still seem heavily focused on redistribution rather than how to encourage more people to actually build businesses that create long-term economic value, employ Australians and export Australian talent and expertise globally.
None of this means housing reform or tax reform shouldn’t happen. Housing affordability is a real issue that deserves serious attention. But long-term prosperity is built by encouraging more people to create globally competitive businesses, not by making that path less attractive while doing little to materially increase housing supply
