Modelling of the 2025 AFL Grand Final reveals how sustained promotion, programming and carryover effects built audience demand weeks before the first bounce, writes Hamish Mogan, COO and VP marketing science at Prophet.
Every September, Australia does something increasingly rare. Millions of people stop what they are doing and watch the same thing at the same time. Unfortunately, my Demons didn’t quite get to the big dance this year after a tremendous season under first year coach, Steven King, however we are sure to witness a terrific game on Saturday, with the Lions looking to complete another ‘3-peat’ or the Dockers looking to lift the cup for the first time.
In an age of personalised algorithms, endless streaming libraries and fragmented media consumption, the AFL Grand Final remains one of the country’s last true appointment-viewing moments.
In 2025, the match reached 6.4 million Australians across Seven and 7plus, meaning that many people watched at least some of the broadcast. An average of 4.2 million viewers were watching throughout the game, the highest AFL Grand Final average since 2005. A record 985,000 people streamed the match on 7plus.
Overall, the audience increased three per cent year-on-year, while streaming grew by 51 per cent.
By the first bounce, an audience of that scale can feel inevitable. The teams have been decided, the country is talking and millions of Australians tune in.
The reality is more interesting.
Australia’s biggest television audience doesn’t appear on Grand Final day. It is built over weeks through thousands of connected moments that gradually transform interest into anticipation.
The final audience only tells us what happened
Audience measurement tells us how many people watched. It is less able to explain why they watched, which activities contributed to that decision and when their intention began to form.
For advertisers, the AFL Grand Final is one of the biggest marketing opportunities of the year. For Seven, it is also one of the biggest marketing challenges.
Before brands can compete for attention during the broadcast, Seven must build the audience they want to reach. Its task is not simply to promote a football match. It must turn one sporting fixture into a national moment that millions of Australians choose to experience together.
That requires marketing to perform a different role.
The objective is to build anticipation gradually until watching feels less like a spontaneous decision and more like an established plan.
Separating existing demand from marketing’s contribution
To understand how that audience developed, Prophet analysed Seven’s promotional activity across August and September 2025.
The modelling examined the combined influence of television promotion, AFL programming, news coverage and broader external factors as the finals series progressed. Importantly, it separated the considerable demand that already existed for the AFL from the additional audience activity generated by marketing.
The analysis identified more than 3.2 million modelled instances of baseline audience demand during the period, reflecting the underlying interest surrounding the AFL, the finals and the Grand Final as a major cultural event.
It also attributed more than 1.3 million incremental instances of audience demand to Seven’s television promotion, making it the largest contributor to media-driven audience growth.
These figures do not represent unique viewers. Rather, they quantify the audience demand generated across the period and reveal the relative contribution of the different forces building towards the Grand Final. This distinction between baseline and incremental demand matters.
It would be misleading to suggest that marketing created the entire Grand Final audience from scratch, that would be hugely disrespectful to the amazing preliminary finals played by the Swans and Freo and the Lions and the Hawks. The AFL already commands enormous interest, and that demand naturally intensifies throughout the finals series. But it would be equally misleading to assume the final audience was inevitable.
Seven’s promotion amplified demand that already existed. It sustained attention, connected each stage of the finals series to the larger occasion and helped convert widespread interest in football into an intention to watch the Grand Final.
Effective marketing does not always manufacture demand. Often, its most valuable role is amplifying existing demand and creating the momentum required to turn it into action.
Anticipation is cumulative
The modelling also found that the impact of Seven’s promotion continued after each piece of activity appeared.
Instead of producing a brief increase in viewing intent and disappearing, promotional activity generated measurable carryover effects. Its influence remained active in the days and weeks that followed, strengthening subsequent promotion and continuing to build audience demand.
By Grand Final week, Seven was not beginning from zero, it was building on almost two months of accumulated attention.
That is how people tend to experience major cultural events. Interest grows through repeated exposure, familiar cues and ongoing conversation. Each encounter collectively makes the event increasingly difficult to ignore.
This is also why short-term measurement can undervalue marketing. If we count only the response immediately following an advertisement, we miss the demand it creates for tomorrow, next week or later in the decision cycle.
Programming became part of the campaign
The analysis reinforced something broadcasters have long understood intuitively: major audiences are rarely built through advertising alone.
Across the finals, Seven’s broader programming ecosystem helped maintain momentum. Dedicated AFL coverage kept audiences connected to the competition. The Front Bar extended the conversation beyond match day, while 7NEWS brought the personalities, rivalries and developing storylines into daily media habits.
All did not contribute in the same way. Some activity generated a more immediate audience response, others demonstrated stronger carryover, continuing to influence behaviour days or weeks later.
Viewed together, Seven’s activity operated as a connected system of promotion, programming and storytelling.
The channels taking the credit may not be doing all the work
This has implications far beyond broadcasting.
Lazy marketing measurement frequently gives the greatest credit to the activity closest to an outcome: the final search, click, website visit or promotional message preceding a purchase.
But proximity is not the same as causation.
The channel that captures a decision may be different from the channels and experiences that created the demand behind it.
The final reminders before the 2025 Grand Final mattered, but their impact was strengthened through earlier promotion, programming, news coverage and the finals series.
The same pattern can apply when someone buys a product, joins a superannuation fund, books a holiday or chooses a new vehicle. The conversion may happen through one identifiable channel, but the decision has often been developing across many interactions.
When marketers measure only the final step, they risk shifting investment away from the activity that made the conversion possible.
The lesson from the Grand Final is to distinguish between demand that already exists, activity that creates and amplifies demand, and the channels that ultimately capture it.
The strongest marketing strategies understand all three.
Seven’s final figures describe what happened on Grand Final day but the modelling helps explain how it happened.
Australia’s biggest television audience did not suddenly appear at the first bounce.
By then, much of the work had already been done.
Written by Hamish Mogan, COO and VP marketing science at Prophet.
