Spend for retail media is predicted to reach $2.3 billion in 2026, growing 19.5 per cent and remaining the fastest growing channel in the Aussie market, according to WPP Media.
If the forecast is accurate, retail media ad spend ($3.1bn) is expected to overtake total TV ad revenue by 2028 with an 8.4 per cent market share.
This follows new research by Arktic Fox and Six Degrees that found 53 per cent of brands plan to increase their spend in retail media in the current year, but are not convinced the channel delivers strong returns on investment.
Titled ‘This Year Next Year Midyear Advertising Forecast’, WPP Media’s report describes an ad industry and global economy in the midst of a “modern-day gold rush”, which is accelerating due to artificial general intelligence.
In Australia, it is forecasted that ad spend will grow 7.4 per cent in 2026 taking the total to $31.1 billion in 2026.
Content driven advertising, which includes TV, audio, print and social video continues to anchor the Australian media landscape, accounting for 63.4 per cent of total ad revenue in 2026.
A lot of the growth will occur on social media and broader digital platforms (including YouTube). This space is forecasted to grow by 10 per cent in 2026 and 12.3 per cent in 2027, before moderating to around seven per cent by 2031.
Recently, the SMI numbers revealed that digital ad spend was up 19.6 per cent YoY in the month of April. This was despite a tough advertising market that was back 11.6 per cent from April 2025.
“Australia’s advertising market continues to demonstrate resilience, even against a backdrop of global uncertainty and as the broader economic backdrop becomes more challenging. Despite the re-acceleration of inflation, driven in part by rising global energy prices, the structural drivers of the advertising market remain firmly intact and advertising revenue growth remains resilient, with total market growth forecast at 7.4 per cent,” she said.
“Underpinned by continued shifts towards digital, sustained demand from both government and small-to-medium businesses and the rapid growth of digitally native and small-scale businesses, which are driving major growth in performance-driven channels, this outperformance is increasingly notable against a slowing economic outlook.”
That resilience is also evident in cinema. Ad spend is forecast to grow by 3.6 per cent in 2026 and at a similar rate in 2027.
Whilst the overall outset of Australia’s media spend is positive, legacy channels are hurting.
Audio is set to see revenue decline to $1.2 billion in 2026, down 4.1 per cent, and a further 1.4 per cent in 2027.
A much larger decline can be seen in total TV, which remains in structural decline despite VOD’s inclusion. Revenue is predicted to fall to $3 billion in 2026, down 6.2 per cent, and to $2.8 billion in 2027. This is despite BVOD advertising to account for 29 per cent of total TV revenue in 2026, before commanding 66 per cent by 2031.
Out-of-home remains the standout performer among traditional channels. Revenue is forecast to increase to $1.55 billion, up 7.1 per cent YoY in 2026, and reach $1.64 billion by 2027 (an increase of a further six per cent).
The global advertising industry is growing faster than anyone predicted twelve months ago. WPP Media now projects global advertising revenue (excluding US political ad spend) will grow 8.9 per cent by the end of 2026.
Global ad revenue as a share of GDP is at its highest point since 1999, surpassing the dot-com peak of 2000.
‘This Year Next Year Midyear Advertising Forecast’ is measured by advertising revenue accruing to media owners and advertising platforms, and not total marketing expenditure.
Figures are reported on a net revenue basis where possible excluding agency fees, trade promotion and other non-media marketing expenditures.
WPP Media estimates are built from a combination of reported company revenues, public filings, market-level media owner data, industry sources, WPP Media market intelligence, local expert input and macroeconomic assumptions.
