Google’s PMax: Without Real Transparency Ad Spend Could Be For Naught
In this op-ed, Matthew Ratty, CEO of TrafficGuard (pictured) explains that When Google announced Performance Max (PMax), it seemed like the answer to every marketer’s dream. But something has gone awry.
PMax offered marketers the chance to drive efficiency, performance and better ROI across all of Google’s channels including YouTube, Search, Shopping and Discovery.
At the core of the PMax promise was Google’s AI, making decisions on everything from bidding, to creative, to search query matching and media environments. For many marketers, this even helped open the door to experimenting with innovation in online videos, such as YouTube Shorts.
However, akin to all AI and machine learning-driven advertising platforms, whether originating from Google, the Trade Desk, Yahoo, or numerous others, PMax requires that marketers place trust in the enigmatic algorithmic ‘black box.’ This calls for a dose of prudent scepticism.
The problem with all black box systems is marketers are at the mercy of the algorithm. In the case of PMax, where Google manages everything, it requires an even higher level of faith in the system. Limited granular reporting in PMax means that while you get broad campaign insights, you won’t be able to see if it’s display, search, video, or shopping ads driving your clicks and conversions.
This would be great if the world was perfect or if you only spent money on Google channels. But marketing is complex, with multiple media partners in any one campaign, and we all know from experience that industry opacity can be exploited to the detriment of marketers and their budgets.
Transparency and accountability are indispensable for marketers to operate with utmost effectiveness. This is why we think marketers should have access to expert analysis allowing them to make more informed decisions about PMax and all AI-driven optimization platforms.
Invalid Traffic is targeting PMax campaigns
It should come as no surprise that bad actors are shifting their focus from general programmatic fraud to targeting campaigns with no insights. The recent supply chain study conducted by ANA demonstrates that there is waste and inefficiency in the existing programmatic supply chain.
PMax is no exception, with the same underlying risk from invalid traffic (IVT) as we have seen on traditional programmatic campaigns. For the purposes of this piece, the definition of invalid traffic is traffic that neither contributes to incremental growth nor originates from human sources, encompassing entities like bots and data centres.
In the realm of traditional programmatic, invalid traffic and click fraud occur on a daily basis, spanning search, mobile, and affiliate campaigns.
For context, in search, we have seen between 5-15% of search clicks come from bots seeking to exploit paid search campaigns to sign up or claim incentives within the ads or worse, deliberately exhausting clients’ search budgets as a “competitive” tactic.
Of course, not all instances of invalid traffic bear malicious intent. For instance, we found that 97 per cent of one user’s Google ad budget was being consumed by returning users who were just using Google as a front door to click on a paid ad to log in to their account.
In the mobile domain, the figures we observe are even more worrying, especially for app install campaigns within sectors like car sharing and food delivery.
Instances of fraudulent app installs have surged to alarming rates, reaching up to 50 per cent and, for one client, the claimed clicks and installs exceeded the population of the targeted geography in a week!
When addressing affiliate fraud, specifically for high-payout categories such as sports and sports fantasy betting as well as subscription and entertainment services, we have seen click fraud and affiliate cookie stuffing through malevolent browser extensions siphon away $100,000 of affiliate payouts per month – harming marketers and publishers. Both those marketers and publishers that are being targeted should be concerned, especially with so many publishers pivoting to affiliate sources to offset general advertising challenges.
What we have observed on PMax is a mix of both new fraud tactics and some of the same types of invalid traffic and fraud that we see across programmatic.
As with most AI systems, PMax assumes every “user” engagement is positive in intent. When bad actors exploit this and create fake intent signals, it can end up training the algorithm to optimize towards the source of the invalid traffic. This results in wrongly optimized campaigns that divert and deplete advertising budgets by driving more fake engagement and conversion events.
To be fair, this is not malfeasance by Google or PMax, however, when AI is optimising towards invalid traffic, budgets can be exploited when there is opacity and no real-time third-party oversight and intervention.
PMax is simply a microcosm of what happens across the entire internet. The challenge lies in marketers who employ AI buying systems without independent third-party auditing and analysis, increasing the risk of simply pumping money into a high-speed AI-optimized ‘invalid traffic machine’.
What our client data shows about PMax
Our trials of our PMax analysis platform focused first on providing transparency of what channel type (search, shopping, display, video) is driving the conversion results. While Google’s AdManager interface for Performance Max fails to display this information, we found a way to provide visibility into these insights – because transparency matters when fighting fraud.
This includes an ability to clearly, by channel, for each and every PMax campaign, in real-time, identify where your money is going and what is driving your performance. Solving for what the ANA recently highlighted as the inefficiencies and waste that would otherwise come from the lack of access to data.
Access to real-time channel data provides the transparency and insights needed for advertisers to protect their entire PMax spend. For example, with one of our clients, who had trusted their paid search budget entirely to PMax, we identified where PMax was cannibalizing their branded keywords and highlighted that these keywords would perform better in a stand-alone search campaign where there is full control and transparency.
Additionally, our client saw PMax bidding on low-performing search terms that resulted in rapid burning of daily budgets on terms any experienced search marketer would normally exclude. This was not fraud per se; it was AI optimizing to suboptimal outcomes. Armed with this data, marketers can then confidently add brand exclusions across PMax (to avoid the wasted overspend on branded keywords) and add account-level negative keywords for extremely poor-performing generic terms.
Within PMax we are seeing a tendency of the algorithm to over-optimize towards paying for clicks from customers you already have – this has been a historic issue with any search PPC campaign, but has accelerated with PMax.
Existing customers who are “lazy browsers” and use Google to simply get to the homepage by way of clicking on a paid ad to get to the login section, or to find the customer service details are a honeypot for PMax’s AI bias for clicks and engagement. Clearly, it’s not logical for marketers to invest in these outcomes from their existing customers, when they could allocate their marketing budgets towards acquiring new customers, it simply adds to the Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC).
One of our clients saw over 50 per cent of their invalid traffic via PMax being funnelled into paying for existing customers to come to the website. We have made it possible for marketers to dynamically set click frequency thresholds on returning users, as well as filtering out bot traffic, forcing the AI algorithm to search for new valid users across PMax.
In terms of outright fraud on PMax, our data shows 7.5 per cent of PMax clicks were invalid across various campaigns. This included clearly identified fraud or highly suspect user engagement where secondary on-site user behaviour was not consistent with a qualified adult human audience. The good news is that this can be stopped. Real-time analysis via our website tags and a direct Google Ad Manager integration made it straightforward to identify and then protect client’s spend across the entire PMax campaign. This includes automatically passing to Google PMax the necessary data points required to mitigate invalid traffic so they were no longer targeted, helping clients acquire real audiences and incremental conversions, and reducing wasted budgets in the process.
What should marketers do about PMax?
All things considered, the industry should be optimistic about AI’s potential to drive better marketing performance. There is real value to be realized in automation and operational efficiencies to be gained.
However, whether it’s PMax or any other AI-led solutions, marketers must push for algorithmic transparency, invest in independent oversight, and not blindly trust the little black box of algorithms if they truly want to drive the best fraud-free performance. Otherwise, bad actors, whether they target PMax or any other AI-led advertising solution, will exploit trust for their benefit, draining marketing budgets in the process.
Latest News
Cairns Crocodiles The Work: Healthcare Sponsored By Alternaleaf
There is just under a month to go until the inaugural Cairns Crocodiles Awards presented by Pinterest! Today, as our judges deliberate over a year’s worth of hard work, we celebrate some of the incredible entries in the Healthcare category sponsored by Alternaleaf. The Cairns Crocodiles Awards celebrate the best examples of creativity in marketing […]
ThinkNewsBrands To Play A Major Role At CMO ANZ Summit
I think we can all agree that being front and centre is a better place to be than back and off centre.
TV Ratings (09/05/2024): Carlton Beats Melbourne In Nail-biting Win
We venture a bet that viewers had no nails left by the end of this game!
Woolies And Suncorp Marketers On Why Brands Are Investing BIG In Netball
Brands finally understanding the potential of netball in Australia. And that's despite the Matildas' ongoing efforts.
Apple Apologises For ‘Tone Deaf’ Culture Crushing iPad Ad
AI may be the route to a smarter & efficient humankind, but for most of us it means "Shit, I'm going to lose my job!"
TEG Group Nabs Belinda Shaw From Boral
Belinda Shaw certainly not shy of challenge as she shifts from a cement firm over to a ticketing one.
NBL Slam Dunks New Network Ten Broadcast Deal
Do you think shooting hoops would be a better use of your spare time than drinking heavily? Discover the truth here.
Qatar Airways Becomes Partner and Official Cargo Airline Partner of MotoGP
B&T can't recommend Qatar Airlines enough. Qatar itself would give Hell's fires a run for their money such is the heat.
Rebel Bondi Junction Pulls Kangaroos Jerseys From The Shelf
Despite some adverse press, this is probably the correct thing to do by the sports retailer.
Dineamic Rebrands To serve Up Honest Food, Via Bullfrog.
Are ready-meals the new status symbol of the super busy? Much like hands-free phones & wanky personalised number plates?
TikTok Joins Adobe-founded Content Authenticity Initiative (CAI) To Help Combat Misinformation
With all this talk of the Chinese government spying on us, B&T embarrassed we haven't got that much to be spied about.
Cannes In Cairns Delegates Called Upon For AI Reef Challenge
Just by attending Cannes In Cairns you can help save the Reef! Which may offset the damage you do not saving your liver.
Man Of Many Launches Sydney Whisky Month – A Luxe Whisky Fair
Sydney's getting its own whisky month. Topics of conversation to avoid include the Middle East & Peter Dutton's head.
Challenger Signs Three Year Partnership With Sydney Film Festival
B&T loves the Sydney Film Festival & not just because it enables us to wear black turtlenecks & say noir over & over.
Truths & Tensions Of The Modern World: Nature Study Reveals Only 50% Of Aussies Feel Optimistic About The Future
Worrying study finds half of Aussies pessimistic about the future. An overwhelming majority detest the McPlant burger.
Bernard Salt AM On Why The Best Is Yet To Come For The Aussie Ad Industry
The demographer & futurist predicts a rosy future for Australia's ad industry. Alas, no tips for Randwick this Saturday.
Coles’ FightMND Fundraiser Takes Off For Big Freeze 10
As much as B&T applauds Coles on this charity initiative, we do ask for less 'Locomotion' through the in-store stereo.
IAB Australia Calls For Submissions To MeasureUp 2024
The IAB's calling for speaker submissions for its MeasureUp conference. Also looking to loan an overhead projector.
Drive TV & Kia Puts EV9 To The Ultimate Test In New TV Special
Have trepidations about purchasing an EV? This eight-part TV show's for you. Simply can't afford one? Watch on, anyway.
WPC Group & NextGen Jobs Recruit InsideOut For PR Account
As much as you love adland, do you often think you'd be better off had you become a plumber? Prove mum was right here.
“She’s A National Treasure For Australia And A Human Treasure For The Planet” – Warner Bros’ Josh Goldstine on Margot Robbie, Barbie And Marketing
Barbie was undoubtedly the marketing success story of 2023. B&T still leading the 'Margot for PM' calls into 2024.
M&C Saatchi Group Invite Emerging Artists To Create Visions Of A Better Future
Does the bowl of fruit on your kitchen bench need immortalising? Top news as M&C Saatchi's art initiative returns.
Thorpie & Matildas Superstars Join The Amazing Race Australia: Celebrity Edition.
Thought to yourself "that Ian Thorpe fellow's been quiet of late"? 10's celeb edition of Amazing Race is where it's at.
Greenpeace Launches Heartbreaking Call To End Deforestation Via Dropbear
As much as B&T applauds Greenpeace, its ads leave you feeling like you got the gas, water & phone bill on the same day.
Smith’s Unveil New ‘Joy is a Simple Recipe’ Brand Platform Via Goodby Silverstein & Partners
The only thing better than a round of beers arriving is the sight of a bag of Smith's between the drink carrier's teeth.
ABC Launches Two New Channels Combining Kids, Family & General Titles
Among the many joys of having young children is that they will seriously watch any old shit on TV.
Wests Tigers Lose One Million Dollar Sponsorship Deal In Hagipantelis Fallout
The question has to be asked - do Tigers play on an ancient Indian burial ground given their ongoing spate of bad luck?
Ads That Entertain And Surprise Consumers Perform Best In Asia-Pacific – WARC report
New study reveals humorous ads "entertain and surprise consumers". Here's hoping Julia Morris doesn't get any ideas.
Aussie Employees Want AI At Work And Won’t Wait For Companies To Catch Up, Study Finds
Someone has clearly told Aussie workers AI wont steal their jobs, but might help them get to the pub more quickly.
Introducing Sam, Mamamia’s New AI-Powered Programmatic Audio Offering For Brands
Mamamia one of the first indie publishers to be really playing in the AI space. Well, the only one really.
OMA Appoints Motio’s Adam Cadwallader & JCDecaux David Watkins To Board Of Directors
New appointments to the OMA board of directors today. Monthly meetings' finger sandwiches to remain strictly egg or ham.
Bastion’s Harry Roth Selected For Cannes Lions Creative Academy
Bastion's Harry Roth off to this year's Cannes creative academy. May wear his Wallabies jersey to ruffle feathers.
TV Ratings (08/05/2024): Seven Has A Huge Night As News & Quiz Shows Dominate
News & quiz shows dominate last night's TV viewing. Further proof of our interest in the Middle East & steak knives.
Network 10 Wants Government Help To Save Regional Broadcast TV
Could Farmer Wants A Wife help Network Ten out of this mess?
Royalties Generated By Aussie Artists On Spotify Reached Nearly $275M In 2023
Royalties generated by Aussie artists on Spotify in 2023 hit $275 million. Shannon Noll's contribution reached $4.45.
eBay Study: Aussies’ Growing Love For Pre-loved Fashion Soaring To New Heights
New study reveals Aussies' love of second-hand fashion. Meaning it's now very cool to smell of moth balls.