Adobe has released its online shopping forecast for the 2025 holiday season (November 1- December 31). Based on Adobe Analytics data, the analysis provides the most comprehensive view into U.S. e-commerce by analysing direct transactions online, covering over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, 100 million SKUs and 18 product categories.
Adobe Analytics is part of Adobe Experience Cloud, relied upon by the majority of the top 100 internet retailers in the U.S.* to deliver, measure, and personalize shopping experiences online.
2025 holiday season to surpass $378 billion online
Adobe expects U.S. online sales to hit $253.4 billion (AUD $378 billion) this holiday season, which represents 5.3 per cent growth year-over-year (YoY). A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion (AUD $7.6 billion) in a single day up from 7 days last year. Cyber Week (the 5-day period including Thanksgiving, Black Friday and Cyber Monday) is expected to drive 17.2 per cent of overall spend this season, at $43.7 billion (AUD $66.1 billion) up 6.3 per cent YoY.
Cyber Monday will remain the biggest online shopping day of the season—and year—at $14.2 billion (AUD $21.5 billion) up 6.3 per cent YoY. However, Black Friday is expected to see higher growth this season, rising 8.3 per cent YoY at $11.7 billion (AUD $17.7 billion). On Thanksgiving, consumers are expected to spend $6.4 billion (AUD $9.7 billion) online up 4.9 per cent YoY.
Mobile devices will cement its position as the dominant shopping platform this season, set to drive a record 56.1 per cent share of online spend (vs. desktop shopping). This represents $142.7 billion ($215.9 billion) up 8.5 per cent YoY. The shift towards mobile shopping has greatly accelerated in recent years: During the 2020 holiday season, mobile accounted for just 40 per cent of online spend.
Buy Now Pay Later to drive an additional $3 billion
Consumers are looking for greater flexibility in managing their budgets this holiday season, with Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) expected to drive $20.2 billion (AUD $30.6 billion) in online spend up 11 per cent YoY). This is roughly $2 billion (AUD $3 billion) more than the 2024 holiday season, when BNPL drove $18.2 billion (AUD $27.5 billion) in online spend.
BNPL usage on Cyber Monday is expected to hit a new milestone and cross $1 billion (AUD $1.5 billion). Usage on Black Friday is set to be strong as well, with significant YoY growth, $761.8 million (AUD $1.2 billion) up 11 per cent YoY. The vast majority of BNPL spend is set to come through mobile devices this season at 79 per cent share (vs. desktop), representing $15.6 billion ($23.6 billion) up 8.3 per cent YoY).
Competitive discounts expected this season as retailers compete for dollars
Adobe expects significant discounts this holiday season–up to 28 per cent off listed price–that are on par with the 2024 season. Discounts for electronics are expected to peak at 28 per cent off listed price (vs. 30.1 per cent in 2024), while discounts for toys are set to hit 27 per cent (vs. 28 per cent). Competitive discounts are also expected in apparel at 25 per cent (vs. 23.2 per cent), TVs at 23 per cent (vs. 24.2 per cent), computers at 23 per cent (vs. 22.8 per cent), sporting goods at 19 per cent (vs. 19.5 per cent), appliances at 18 per cent (vs. 19.2 per cent) and furniture at 18 per cent (vs. 19 per cent).
The deepest discounts are expected to land throughout Cyber Week, with Cyber Monday being last call for the best deals. Thanksgiving will be the best day to shop for sporting goods. On Black Friday, shoppers will see the deepest discounts for TVs, toys, and appliances. And Cyber Monday will be the best day to shop for electronics, apparel, and computers.
Consumers are not simply looking for the lowest price this season. Competitive discounts will drive shoppers to trade up to higher-ticket items in certain categories—allowing individuals to get more value out of their dollar. The share-of-units sold for the most expensive goods is set to rise by 56 per cent in sporting goods, 52 per cent in electronics, 39 per cent in appliances, 32 per cent in personal care, and 26 per cent in tools and home improvement. The trend reverses in groceries (down 3 per cent) and furniture (down 8 per cent), as shoppers embrace lower priced items in these categories.
Electronics, apparel, and home goods set to drive growth online
Over half (53.7 per cent) of online spend this season will be driven by three categories including electronics $57.5 billion (AUD $87 billion) up 4 per cent YoY, apparel $47.6 billion (AUD $72 billion) up 4.4 per cent YoY and furniture $31.1 billion (AUD $47 billion) up 6.5 per cent YoY. Smaller categories (on a spend basis) that are seeing higher growth include groceries $23.5 billion (AUD $35.5 billion) up 9.2 per cent YoY and cosmetics $8.4 billion (AUD $12.7 billion) up 9.1 per cent YoY.
Adobe expects an uptick in purchases for the home this season, as consumers take advantage of deals to upgrade their living spaces. Online sales are expected to rise by 1,060 per cent in power tools (vs. average spend levels from Jan-Aug 2025), along with home security products (up 1,050 per cent), TVs (up 915 per cent), refrigerators/freezers (up 910 per cent), and smart home devices (up 615 per cent). Health monitoring is another growth area this season, with online sales of activity trackers set to rise 1,055 per cent, along with smartwatches (up 950 per cent) and other bio-monitors (up 385 per cent). Additionally, Adobe expects strong growth in the gaming category, with online sales expected to surge in consoles (up 1,040 per cent), games (up 830 per cent), and accessories (up 820 per cent).
Hot sellers this season are expected to include gaming consoles such as Nintendo Switch 2, Sony PlayStation 5, and Xbox Series X, along with games such as Donkey Kong Bananza, Elden Ring: Nightreign, Madden NFL 26, NBA 2k26, EA Sports FC 26, and Call of Duty: Black Ops 7. Top selling toys are expected to include Disney Stitch Puppetronic, Labubu Dolls, MrBeast Lab Toys, Fisher-Price Little People, LEGO sets, and Mini Brands Capsules. Other hot sellers this season include iPhone 17, Google Pixel 10, Samsung Galaxy S25, Oura Ring 4, Kindle Colorsoft, DJI Osmo Pocket 3, and Dyson Airwrap Multi Styler.
Online shopping behaviours influenced by generative AI and social media
Generative AI-powered chat services and browsers are changing how consumers act online, becoming a helpful assistant for compiling research before making a purchase. Adobe observed the first material surge in AI traffic to U.S. retail sites (measured by shoppers clicking on a link) during the 2024 season, with traffic increasing 1,300 per cent YoY.
For the 2025 season, Adobe expects AI traffic to rise by 520 per cent YoY, peaking in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving. Additionally, AI services are expected to be used most for categories including toys, electronics, jewellery, and personal care.
In an Adobe survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, over one-third report having used an AI-powered service for online shopping, with top use cases including research (per 53 per cent of respondents), product recommendations (40 per cent), finding deals (36 per cent), and gift inspiration (30 per cent).
Advertising across social media platforms is expected to be a substantial growth driver this holiday season. Its share of online revenue (purchases attributed to social traffic) is expected to rise by 51 per cent YoY—a significant increase from the 2024 season where growth was at 5 per cent YoY.
In affiliates and partners—which includes social media influencers—the growth is also notable at 14 per cent YoY. While major channels such as paid search and email continue to be reliable drivers of traffic and sales online, consumers are increasingly turning to social media to discover and learn about new products.
