Zenith: Mobile Ad Spend To Exceed 30% By 2020
Mobile advertising will account for 30.5 per cent of global advertising expenditure in 2020, up from 19.2 per cent in 2017, according to Zenith’s Advertising Expenditure Forecasts.
Expenditure on mobile advertising will total US$187bn in 2020, more than twice the US$88bn spent on desktop advertising, and just US$5bn behind the US$192bn spent on television advertising.
At the current rate of growth mobile advertising will comfortably overtake television in 2021.
As internet users switch from desktop to mobile devices – and new users go straight to mobile – online advertising is making the same switch.
Advertising on mobile devices is rising at a meteoric rate, and is taking market share from all most other media.
Mobile ad spend grew 35 per cent in 2017, and we expect it to grow at an average rate of 21 per cent a year to 2020.
However, brands that are shifting budgets to mobile advertising may be affecting their ability to win new customers and expand their market share.
Zenith’s Touchpoints ROI Tracker research* shows that traditional mass media are more effective at driving recall among new or light buyers, therefore having a strong understanding of acquisition channels and retention channels is key.
According to Touchpoints ROI Tracker, television ads are most effective at driving recall among potential customers, while mobile ads are least effective.
Potential customers are 53 per cent as likely to recall television ads as existing customers, but for mobile ads this falls to 41 per cent.
Targeting mobile ads at existing customers can certainly help brands achieve short-term performance targets, especially because mobile is increasingly tying together the whole consumer journey.
However, mobile is currently less effective at creating long-term awareness among potential customers than traditional media, so brands with a heavy mobile presence should consider investing more in traditional mass media to compensate for this.
Demand in China drives rapid cinema growth
Most of the traditional media are still growing despite the inexorable rise of mobile advertising, but generally at very low rates.
We forecast television and radio to grow by 1 per cent a year between 2017 and 2020, while out-of-home advertising grows by 3 per cent a year.
Cinema, however, is growing at 16 per cent a year, thanks to investment in new screens, successful movie franchises, and better international marketing.
The main driver, though, is surging demand in China, where ticket sales increased 22 per cent in 2017.
China overtook the US to become the world’s biggest cinema advertising market in 2017, worth US$1.2bn, and by 2020 we expect it to reach US$2.8bn.
Print advertising continues to shrink together with circulations: between 2017 and 2020 we forecast newspaper ad spend to shrink by an average of 5 per cent a year, while magazine ad spend shrinks by 6%.
This refers only to advertising within print titles though – publishers’ online revenues are counted within the desktop and mobile internet totals, so their overall performance is not as bad as the print figures suggest.
Research organisations in some markets – such as the Advertising Association/WARC in the UK – provide combined print and digital ad revenue figures for publishers, generally showing that the digital revenues soften but do not reverse the decline in print.
Global ad spend growth remains steady
We forecast global advertising expenditure to grow 4.5 per cent this year.
That’s fractionally behind the 4.6 per cent growth we forecast in March, but that’s primarily because we have upped our figures for 2017, providing a tougher comparison.
We now estimate that global ad spend grew 4.2 per cent in 2017, compared to our previous estimate of 4.0%.
We forecast 4.2 per cent growth for 2019 and 4.3 per cent growth for 2020, so growth will remain comfortably within the 4 per cent -5 per cent range it has stayed within since 2011.
In Australia ad spend is expected to increase by 2.8 per cent in 2018 off the back of a recently confirmed rise of 2.4 per cent in 2017 (CEASA).
“All media with the exception of print is likely to be stable to up in 2018 with outdoor and the internet continuing to out-perform the market,” Zenith Australia CEO, Nickie Scriven, said.
“We are seeing growth levels of the internet starting to slow, however, largely driven by search which saw mid-single digit growth in 2017 versus double-digit growth in 2016.
“January to May SMI data has the current market at 3.2 per cent before late digital bookings.
“Sectors and events contributing the most to ad spend growth in the year to date include banks, Government and the Commonwealth Games.
“In the wake of the Royal Commission into the banking and financial services industry, which has uncovered questionable corporate behaviour and corruption, our banks have ramped up their ad spend, with SMI reporting a 31 per cent increase in spend year-on-year.
“The Government has also boosted its ad spend by 28 per cent.”
Asia Pacific fuels global expansion
Asia Pacific is by far the biggest contributor to global ad spend growth.
Between 2017 and 2020 it will contribute 43 per cent of all the new ad dollars added to the market – US$32.1bn out of the US$75.1bn total.
Six of the ten markets that will contribute the most to global growth are in Asia Pacific: China (which by itself will account for 22 per cent of global growth), India (which will contribute 5 per cent), Indonesia (4 per cent), Japan (3 per cent), the Philippines (3 per cent) and South Korea (2 per cent).
We forecast that Asia Pacific will account for 33.8 per cent of global ad spend in 2020, up from 32.6 per cent in 2017.
North America, currently the largest advertising region, is falling behind in growth. We expect it to contribute 27 per cent of new ad dollars between 2017 and 2020, while its share of global ad spend slips from 37.1 per cent to 36.0 per cent.
The ‘Advanced Asia’ region, which includes Australia, New Zealand, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, is forecast to record 3.4 per cent average annual growth to 2020, ahead of the 3.1 per cent average growth rate since 2012.
Australia sits in 8th place in the Top 10 Ad Markets, with $11.95 billion in ad spend in 2017 and a forecast $13.118 billion by 2020.
“Dynamic markets in Asia Pacific are leading the way in global ad spend growth, growing at 5 per cent – 6 per cent a year,” said Jonathan Barnard, Zenith’s head of forecasting and director of Global Intelligence.
“By the middle of the next decade it will be the biggest advertising region in the world.”
“The mobile device in our pockets is becoming the gateway to our media world, but its brand-building capabilities are still in question – simply applying old practices to new technology may not translate to brand growth,” said Vittorio Bonori, Zenith’s global brand president.
“Having a clear understanding of how the entire ecosystem of paid, owned and earned media works together to drive return on investment is vital.”
*Touchpoints ROI Tracker is Publicis Media’s brand contact measurement and planning tool, based on more than 1,000,000 consumer interviews since 2004.
Latest News
Sydney Comedy Festival: Taking The City & Social Media By Storm
Sydney Comedy Festival 2024 is live and ready to rumble, showing the best of international and homegrown talent at a host of venues around town. As usual, it’s hot on the heels of its big sister, the giant that is the Melbourne International Comedy Festival, picking up some acts as they continue on their own […]
Global Marketers Descend For AANA’s RESET For Growth
The Australian Association of National Advertisers (AANA) has announced the final epic lineup of local and global marketing powerhouses for RESET for Growth 2024. Lead image: Josh Faulks, chief executive officer, AANA Back in 2000, a woman with no business experience opened her first juice bar in Adelaide. The idea was brilliantly simple: make healthy […]
Is Meta’s New AI Chatbot Too Left-Wing?
Meta's chatbot accused of being left-wing after being caught wearing a Che Guevara T-shirt & listening to Billy Bragg.
TV Ratings (23/04/2024): Why Did No One Tell Angela That Farmer Wants A Wife Is Set On A Farm?
As wonderful as this headline is, let's face it, we all know an 'Angela', don't we?
PubMatic Unveils New AI Partnership To Turn Social Posts Into Ads For Any Digital Channel
Here's some nifty tech for turning social posts into ads. Assuming said posts aren't one-star character assassinations.
Intuit Mailchimp Makes A Splash With Its First Australian Brand Campaign
Ever laugh along at a gag you didn't get so as not to appear dumb? Get ready for more feigning with this new work.
GumGum’s Rob Hall: Advertisers Can No Longer “Rely On Binary Descriptions” Of Consumers
If anyone's got their finger on adtech's pulse, it's Rob Hall. He also avoids using the good paper in the office printer
Mastercard Nabs Florencia Aimo From Marriott International
Marriott International's Florencia Aimo jumps from the hotel business to the exploitative credit card one.
Bastion Agency Appoints Cheuk Chiang As New ANZ CEO
Cheuk Chiang takes the reins over at Bastion Agency. But not the rains down in Africa.
Spotlight On Sponsors: Major Sponsorship Wins After A Disappointing Week In Sport
B&T continuing our deep dive into local sport sponsorships & that's despite not a single offer of a free ticket as yet.
Macca’s Marketing Director, Samantha McLeod On Big Mac Chant: “What Was Once Old Is Now Cool Again”
Macca's using the power of nostalgia in latest Big Mac campaign. Well, only for those who've ever eaten one sober.
World Premiere Of Midnight Oil: The Hardest Line To Open Sydney Film Festival 2024
Oil's biopic to open Sydney Film Festival. Here's hoping Molly Meldrum will take his pants down at the premiere.
Entries Are Now Open For The 2024 Brandies, IntelligenceBank’s Annual Brand Marketing Awards
The Brandies are, of course, a prestigious marketing gong and not the mystery tipple favoured by nannas everywhere.
The Fred Hollows Foundation Appoints Ardent For PR
Yes, we all like to have a joke at PR's expense. But sometimes it does important work, like this.
AI, eCommerce & Marketing Specialists Are In Increased Demand By Businesses, New Data From Fiverr Shows
Has your philosophy & anthropology degree left you with nothing but a huge HECS debt? Here's what you should've studied.
Perth’s First 3D Anamorphic Billboard Arrives Courtesy Of oOh!media
Do you love a buzzword? Now you can add anamorphic to the list as it relates to billboards, not a colleague's ears.
MasterChef Australia & Crown Resorts Launch Unique Dining Experience With ALUMNI
A pop-up restaurant staffed by MasterChef contestants! That's fine dining prices for first-year apprentice chef cuisine!
Amanda Laing Announces Resignation From Foxtel Group
Foxtel's chief commercial & content officer heads for the exits. Read nice things the bosses said about her right here.
The Lost Letters From Our Diggers: News Corp Unveils ANZAC Day Special
It's nice when brands respectfully acknowledge ANZAC Day.
Howatson+Company Acquires Akkomplice
Large indie acquires a slightly smaller indie. Much like a shark eating a tuna, just with less thrashing and blood.
Google Delays Third-Party Cookie Deprecation Again
In good news for the sale of picture library biscuit photos, Google continues to tease over the end of cookies.
Education A Low Priority For Aussies More Concerned With Cost Of Living Forethought Study Reveals
Study finds Aussies cutting back on education due to cost of living. Booze & Uber Eats sales remain largely unaffected.
“I’m Still The Same Person That I Was”: Rikki Stern Says “Fucc It” To Cancer Stereotypes
B&T always happy to promote the anti-cancer cause. Even brands that massively overdo it with the hot pink.
The Unapproved Climate Certification Allegedly Causing Mass Greenwashing
Are you left flummoxed in the canned tuna & free range eggs aisle? Just wait till this green certification gets up.
TV Ratings (22/04/2024): Fans Mock “Over The Top” Reaction To New MasterChef Judges
MasterChef returns for its 2024 season. B&T stands by putting peppercorns in Gravox & no one will be any the wiser.
Dentsu Restructure: Muddle, Harvey & Johnston Take Leadership Baton As Bass & Yurisich Exit
A large broom has swept through Dentsu's local ops this morning, taking with it some big names & the air con's cobwebs.
Industry Shares Trends Shaping The Industry This International Creators Day
B&T's asking adland creators to reveal their top trends. And it's not good news for your Jenny Kee cardigan collection.
Mable Extends HOYTS Sensory Screenings Partnership
Mable has extended its HOYTS sensory screening partnership. Vigorously defends its two-star Oppenheimer review.
Orphan Launches ‘They Need Our Help. We Need Yours’ For Children’s Cancer Institute
Anything to do with childhood cancers has B&T's 110% support. That said, we do ignore the red meat & alcohol warnings.
Smile Team Orthodontics & Keep Left Collaborate On Smile-Inducing Campaign
As parents would attest, given the cost of orthodontics you'd expect this campaign to be a lavish production indeed.
Opinion: How Video Calls Neglect Learning Diversity
Need an excuse to duck out of a video call this arvo? Show this to your boss.
DoubleVerify Achieves First-Of-Its-Kind Responsible AI Certification From TrustArc
DoubleVerify receives responsible AI certification. However, not its robotic vacuum that's been seen menacing the cat.
Smile For A Good Cause: The Social Media Campaign Giving Back To The Community
Are you known as the office Austin Powers? More for you teeth than shagability? Get snappy new fangs with this news.
Elon Musk Mocks Albo After ESafety Wins Court Injunction Against X
Albo's 2024 from hell continues - Rabbitohs in crisis, down in the polls and now feuding with world's richest man.
Real Estate Developer In Hot Water Over “Sexually Exploitative” OOH Campaign
Real estate agents again tops in the 'least trusted profession' polls, nudging used car salesmen & ad creatives.
Epsilon’s Shane Hanby: Post-Cookie Era Relies On “Teamwork” Between Brands, Marketers & Tech
This pro predicts more "teamwork" in a post-cookie era. Which spells bad news for the uncooperative or plain stubborn.