Total global ad spend will rise by 4.7 percent in 2019 to reach $623 billion, boosted by stronger-than-expected spending on internet advertising, according to Zenith.
Zenith forecasts 4.6 per cent growth in both 2020 and 2021, ahead of previous forecasts of 4.2 per cent and 4.1 per cent growth respectively.
Zenith predicts internet advertising will reach $US329 billion in 2021, and account for 49 per cent of all global ad spend, up from our 47 per cent forecast in December.
This growth is being driven by the overlapping channels of online video and social media, which they expect to grow by 19 per cent and 14 per cent a year to 2021 respectively.
Zenith forecast display advertising as a whole – which encompasses video and social, as well as banners – to grow by 13 per cent a year, while paid search and classified lag behind, growing at an average of seven per cent a year each.
In Australia, Zenith forecasts that by 2021, digital’s share of ad spend will exceed 60 per cent.
Although a degree of slow-down is anticipated, particularly across search, display advertising is still expected to witness strong growth.
Zenith also revised upwards its forecasts for the US, Russia and France.
The US, which accounts for 37 percent of global ad spend, is expected to rise by five percent in 2019 and will be the largest contributor to global ad spend growth between 2018 and 2021, adding $32 billion to the market, followed by China with $16 billion and India $5 billion.
By region, the fastest-growing block will be Eastern Europe and Central Asia, with an 8.4 percent gain expected, followed by “Fast-track Asia” at 7.3 percent, North America at 4.8 percent, “Advanced Asia” at 3.6 percent, Western and Central Europe at 3 percent, Latin America at 2.8 percent and Japan at 1.0 percent.
Zenith’s head of forecasting and director of global intelligence, Johnathan Barnard said: “Internet advertising will exceed a quarter of a trillion dollars for the first time this year.
“The speed of internet adspend growth continues to surprise us, as small businesses and digital challengers provoke established brands to up their game.”
Zenith’s global head of strategy, Ben Lukawski said: “Brands with more than a niche market share still need interruptive advertising at scale to acquire new customers.
“As more communication takes place online, the challenge for brands is to build distinctiveness through frequent short-term exposure, rather than the occasional but longer exposures common to traditional media.”
