Independent media agency Avenue C have hosted their Economic Forum event in partnership with Nine for the second year in a row. Avenue C clients enjoyed a morning hearing from 2GB’s Money News host Deborah Knight and economics correspondent for The Age and The Sydney Morning Herald, Shane Wright, as they speculated on where the economy is now headed.
The discussion covered a wide range of topics from the confusion around how in crisis Australia is economically, to trade discussions with China, but the main topic focused around what we might expect should Trump win the presidential election (the consensus in the room being he would!). Namely, the impact that the Trump tax cuts would have on US debt which analysts are predicting could be around $US5 trillion. What will this mean for Australia, only time will tell, but the panel did not think we would be able to escape the impact of that in the same way that we were cushioned from the global impact of the GFC.
Talk then turned to consumer confidence. After the 65th consecutive week under index, are there other things that we should be focusing on beyond consumer confidence? Both Knight and Wright talked of how the issue with consumer confidence is that it can be misleading, as is more related to market uncertainty and therefore is self-fulfilling, declines fuel further declines. Perhaps it is more useful to drill down into audiences’ views of their personal finances rather than the macro climate, as we are still seeing large cohorts spending, witnessed with the Tay Tay effect.
The audience was particularly interested to hear about the journalists’ thoughts around workplace productivity – both discussed that the types of leaps in productivity that would make the significant difference we have seen in the past, could only happen with something as significant as AI.
When asked what Australians are looking for in this current climate, two interesting insights were discussed. Firstly, the overarching need for authenticity. When the market is volatile, clearly trust in the purchases we make is essential. The other was around safety and security. Wright highlighted the ANZ Falcon advertising as a great example of this.
The morning concluded with a quick fire round of questions where both Wright and Knight said they thought Albanese wouldn’t be calling an election until early 2025 and they didn’t believe we will be seeing a recession. Let’s hope they’re right!
