Algorithm Or Alchemy: You Put Rubbish In, You Get Rubbish Out
B&T’s regular columnist and contrarian, Robert Strohfeldt of Strohfeldt Consulting, argues we’re all too dependant on the latest algorithm – to our peril…
Machines have been replacing people since the industrial revolution. The pyramids would be knocked up a hell of a lot faster (with much less loss of life) using modern machinery and techniques. (Though it could be argued that the build quality would not be improved upon – check out inner city Sydney units built in the last five years.)
Moving from the industrial to the information age, we are now experiencing machines (computers) taking over the thinking once done by people at an ever – increasing rate. And there is no argument that computers are much faster and more accurate than people. They are also a hell of a lot cheaper and don’t carry the “baggage” that many people bring to a job. (Never had to fire a computer for making an unwanted pass at the photocopier).
As computers evolved, they have become smaller, faster and permeated virtually every aspect of our lives. We now have a whole generation who have not experienced life without computers. (Nor could they imagine life without them).
I was helping a good friend who is a professional musician and guitar teacher research online guitar courses and came across the following:
“After playing guitar for over 12 years, we tried the most popular lessons online, rated each with a custom algorithm and then wrote reviews to help other guitarists choose.”
It reminded me of the numerous times I see the use of “algorithm”. No matter what you want done, there is an algorithm available for it:
- A business who monitors and does analyses of social media by: Aggregating all a company’s social media posts and using an algorithm to determine which are the most relevant.
- A business started by a dual rugby league/union international uses “an algorithm” to identify power players with the most potential to change consumer behaviour. (Links brands to sports stars’ social media followers).
- Media planning and buying: “An algorithm is used to select and buy the most cost effective schedule from available online media inventory.”
It seems that once an “algorithm” is brought into play, then the result it spits out is automatically deemed to be correct.
Should there be a rigorous examination of the said algorithm, rather than blind acceptance of the outcome?
Take the question of programmatic buying. With so much online media inventory, old style calculations would take an eternity. Computers literally calculate at the speed of light; therefore, it is obvious that the numbers are crunched by computer. There are too many combinations and permutations for an individual with a calculator to attempt.
So, the question is not “is programmatic buying” a feasible solution, rather how good is the program (or algorithm) being used? What calculations and assumptions were made and what is the accuracy or validity of each?
The same applies to the social media and sport stars’ algorithms.
For the social media algorithm, someone must first make assumptions on which words or phrases are deemed relevant. If any of these assumptions are incorrect, then the resulting algorithm is going to be incorrect.
Identifying sports’ stars with the ability to change human behaviour would logically extend to any celebrity or high profile individual. How the hell does one determine if a person can change human behaviour? Changing human behaviour is far more complex than asking the question ‘If (sport star a) recommended this product, how likely would you be to buy it?”
Having a magic algorithm sounds so far more in tune with the digital age. A victory for marketing fashion over function (again).
A basic fact often forgotten, or not understood – that a person does the thinking, a computer does as it is instructed.
Quite often the individual writing the code or algorithm knows very little about the topic for which the algorithm is being developed.
Airbnb, is a huge international success. As a disruptive business that would not exist if not for the internet, you would assume they have their act together. We use it for a property on the Gold Coast.
They introduced a new algorithm, called “Smart Pricing”. The price of accommodation varies – school holidays, Christmas, New Year, Easter etc. Instead of manually going through every day in each month of the calendar and entering a price, “Smart Pricing” uses an algorithm to calculate the pricing for you automatically. All you do is set a minimum and maximum price for it to work from.
A great idea in principal, saving a lot of time and for some, much guess work. It wasn’t long before we received a request for two nights, 4 months in advance – the price the algorithm quoted wasn’t sufficient to cover costs for cleaning. It was less than one quarter of the minimum price that was set. (Yet the “algorithm” asks to input your minimum and maximum prices). The person writing the code did not know how to do the maths to work out a price variance equation based on demand and a fluctuating occupancy continuum – minimum and maximum price of the property and because Airbnb asks for 100% of the accommodation cost at the time of booking, guests book “short” rather than “long” – a shit load of variables that require a detailed understanding of mathematics, not some code monkey’s basic statistics. In this instance the mistake was so obvious, it was easily picked up.
But what if the calculation is for say, programmatic media planning? A good way to illustrate the difference between “calculating” and “thinking” is a headline and introduction for a recent story in TheDrum:
Mercedes-Benz asks agencies to ‘review’ safe media list as brands respond to ‘programmatic terror’ dilemma.
A report that some of the world’s biggest brands are inadvertently funding extremism and pornography through programmatic ads has prompted Mercedes-Benz to review the platforms and channels it considers safe.
The next “big thing” after programmatic is the development of algorithms to create advertising and content – computer generated creative. Good luck. Determining all the variables at play is close to an impossible task and adding further to the difficulty, the variables influencing the creative output vary from situation to situation, even when working within strict corporate guidelines. The human brain is the most complex piece of “machinery” on earth and many of its workings are still a mystery to research scientists. How the hell does one develop a computer programme (sorry, algorithm) to duplicate something that no one truly understands the workings of?
If anything, computers are dumbing us down – the Google syndrome: “I know the answer but have absolutely no understanding of how it is derived.”
We are still a long way from artificial intelligence. (Singularity, when artificial intelligence overtakes human intelligence.) All algorithms are an analysis of a problem, using a pre-determined formula and assumptions developed by a person. Yes, some are incredibly complex and developed from “machine learning”, but the “learning” is programmed. Deduction is not imagination.
An algorithm cannot turn lead into gold any more than it is an infallible, “magic” solution to a problem or calculation to which the path to the answer is not already known.
So rather than merely accept a conclusion is correct because an algorithm was used, the question should be “can we see the formula and assumptions used to develop the algorithm”?
You don’t have to be a code writer or mathematician to do this. Understanding of and experience in your area of practice will tell you if the assumptions made are correct.
The basics really don’t change. And when it comes to algorithms, programmes or what- ever term is deemed the most fashionable, the absolute fundamental that has been around since the first computer was invented still holds true:
Rubbish In = Rubbish Out.
Latest News
The Mars Agency Announces Latest Findings Of Retail Media Report Card
The Mars Agency has developed a scorecard that assesses the capabilities of leading platforms across key criteria required to optimally plan, execute, and measure effective retail media programs. The scorecard aims To help brands efficiently evaluate their spending options across retail media networks in Australia (and New Zealand). With spending on retail media advertising in […]
‘It’s The Lesser Of Two Evils’ – NRL Eyes US Betting Market As Aussie Regulators Circle
US betting firms will be delighted by the circa 50,000 Americans who could soon watch the NRL on their favourite app.
A-League In Deep Discussions With New Partner To Keep Games On TV After Production Company Enters Administration
The A-League's insatiable appetite for scoring own goals continues.
TV Ratings (27/03/2024): Jungle Members At War Over Concealed Lipstick
A heated argument between two jungle members did the numbers for Ten last night, with I’m A Celeb obtaining a total national reach of 1,282,000. Fans were delighted as Candice Warner and influencer Skye Wheatley got into it over a stick of lipstick, leading Warner to dub the Instagram star “selfish.” Wheatley, best known for […]
Is The Australian Music Industry In Trouble? Inquiry Launched Following Splendour Cancellation
Earlier this week, an inquiry was launched into the challenges and opportunities currently facing the Australian live music industry in the wake of multiple festival cancellations. On 25 March 2024, the Minister for the Arts, the Hon. Tony Burke MP, asked the Committee on Communications and the Arts to inquire into and report on the […]
Liana Dubois, Leandro Perez, Aimee Buchanan & More Gather For Inaugural Compadres Leadership Event
Didn't get the invite? Perhaps you're not as important as you thought.
Cathay Captures The Unforgettable Thrill Of Cathay/HSBC Hong Kong Rugby Sevens, Via Publicis
Nobody does rugby like Hong Kong, apparently. Certainly nobody does it as badly as Australia.
Cocogun Nabs Christine Watts, Kirsty Reynolds & Shev Tan Bolstering Management & Creative Teams
Cocogun bolsters its team with new hires. Committed to purchasing a bigger sofa, too.
The Media Store’s Jacquie Alley & Sam Cousins Take The Plunge With Pro-Bono Work For Cure Cancer
B&T chats with The Media Store bosses about their great pro-bono work and sponsored swim.
Hawke’s Brewing Co. Taps Rocket Comms For PR Agency Following Competitive Pitch
We're expecting Rocket Comms productivity to crash in spectacular fashion following this win.
Spotlight On Sponsors: Patties Serves Up A Taste Of Home For Olympians & South Sydney Rabbitohs Recommit To Gambling Reform
While the Rabbitohs commits to gambling reform, B&T reckons the team should commit to a decent auto sponsor.
Google: “Inevitable” That Bad Actors Will Abuse Ads Platform As Advertiser Account Suspensions Double
Google maintains it's simply impossible for it to entirely stop bad people placing & paying for ads using its service.
Quantcast Expands APAC Sales Team With Appointment Of News Corp Account Manager
No pressure at all when you are appointed as a client success manager.
Publicis Sapient Tests Microsoft-Powered Gen AI Search Tool With Homes & Villas By Marriott Bonvoy
Given Gen AI's record for mangling stuff, B&T cannot see the problem with letting it decide your next holiday digs.
Volkswagen & DDB Group’s “Roo Badge” To Reduce Kangaroo Related Road Collisions
Watch out for RooBadge as Cannes Lions' most debated campaign this year.
Twilio Launches Unified Profiles & Agent Copilot Features To Boost Productivity & Engagement
Agent Copilot sounds like James Bond's less interesting cousin.
Reebok & Honda Among New Clients For onetwo agency
OneTwo finally lives up to its name with this double billing.
Ogilvy Report: Throw Out The Social Strategy Rule Book, The Rules Of The Past No Longer Apply
B&T was puzzled that all 'influencers' aren't, effectively, 'virtual', but here we are.
WhiteGREY & AKQA Merge In Australia, Lee Simpson Departs
Fortunately, the combined agencies aren't opting for a trite portmanteau for the new name.
Splendour In The Grass 2024 Music Festival Cancelled!
Music fans all over the country reportedly relieved they can pack away their rain coats and gumboots for another year.
TV Ratings (26/03/2024): “Fairy Bread, F***ing Disgusting”: Gordon Ramsay Slams Aussie Food In Food Stars Launch
Ramsay not one for mincing his words, even when it comes to minced meat pies.
Paramount+ International Boss Doubles Down On Aussie Content, Says Ad-Tier will Grow Audiences And Revenue
Good news as Paramount will not be binning I’m A Celebrity for re-runs of Frasier.
Brent Smart: Telstra Pushing For 50-50 Brand-Performance Split But Warns Numbers ‘Won’t Look Great’ Initially
The old brand vs performance debate continues. But here, Brent is firmly sitting on the fence.
Crowded House, Tones And I & Dom Dolla Win Big At The Shure Rolling Stone Music Awards
B&T staffer reports back with humdinger of a hangover & feeling seriously uncool after mixing with music types.
Opinion: Dyslexia “A Hidden Gem” For Brands & Agencies
Dyslexics offer underappreciated benefits in the corporate field, according to this op-ed.
David Jones Taps Criteo To Power Online Retail Media Arm
Want to see ads for things you probably can't afford? David Jones has got you covered with new retail media play.
oOh!media Sets Up Team To Target Business Audiences Across Airports & Offices
oOh! wants brands to harass you every minute of your next business trip.
QMS Launches Australian First DOOH & TV Partnership With Samba TV
Samba TV, of course, is not a channel dedicated to dancing. Much to our dismany.
Slew Of New Hires At Amplify
Four new faces join the Amplify offices. Team say desk scarcity becoming "acute".
Adobe Announces Content Authenticity Initiative Expansions To Counter Deep Fakes
Try as they might to enlighten them, we suspect Trump supporters will continue to watch and believe Fox News.
The PR Group Appoints TechCrunch Senior Reporter Catherine Shu As Director Of Content & Media
Catherine Shu makes the bold leap from journalism to PR. Says inevitable pay bump was "unrelated".
HERO Nabs Ebony Santin From AMPR
Rumours Santin cleared out the stationery cupboard before departing are as yet unconfirmed.
Karena Noble Checks Out Of EVT Hotels & Resorts To Launch Comms Consultancy
Noble still managed to squeezed in a continental breakfast before departing.
Canva Acquires Design Platform Affinity To Bring Professional Design Tools To Every Organisation
Canva & Adobe face off continues. We're not picking sides but keenly aware that Canva's office is next door to ours.
“Lean On Our Team To Help You Find An Audience”: Why Understanding Audience Engagement Is Essential In Journalism
Engaging the audience is critical to journos, apparently. We'd thought self-loathing & alcoholism were key.
Adobe Summit: Major Gen AI Developments, Data Concessions & Partnerships
What happens in Vegas stays there. Unless it's the Adobe Summit and then you get to read about in B&T.