Grand Final Punters On Twitter Make A Terrible Focus Group
The football grand final predictions made by Twitter users are an example of why we should take consensus with a grain of salt when evaluating consumer research, says strategist Thomas McGillick.
The central assumption of the phenomenon known as the wisdom of the crowd is that the average of a group of independent predictions is likely to be more accurate than any randomly selected individual prediction. The bigger the crowd, the better the prediction. It’s part observable effect, part misleading heuristic, and it’s the reason we so rarely challenge consensus among respondents in consumer research.
There are plenty of reasons why a group of consumers might struggle to accurately determine the potential effectiveness of an advertisement, and some of them have been on show over the last two weeks, as the collective wisdom of Twitter repeatedly swung and missed when predicting the outcomes of both football grand finals.
In the Australian rules final we had an excellent opportunity for the wisdom of the crowd to work as it is supposed to. The large upset means that the collective wisdom in the crowd of predictions should be seen in (if not an accurate prediction) a more accurate, or moderate prediction than that made by a bookmaker. The opposite happened.
Collating every tweet appearing the hours leading up to the opening bounce hashtagged #AFLGF resulted in an average prediction erroneously in favour of the Swans, that predicted a larger winning margin than that predicted by the major online bookmakers. Twitter had the Swans by 15.5 and the bookies on average had the Swans by 10.5.
So the crowd was wrong, so were the bookies, but in an instance where you would expect the crowd to be more accurate, they were more wrong.
Not surprisingly, Twitter also got the first try scorer and man of the match predictions wrong.
Turning to the NRL grand final and we have another surprising result. Not an upset this time, but a larger winning margin than the bookies and tipsters predicted. In this case the twitter hive mind correctly picked the favourite (Souths) as the winner, but consensus was less clear. Twitter predicted a Rabbits victory by 5.1, while the bookies margin was an equally impossible 8.5. The actual margin was a much larger 24 points, so again, the crowd was less accurate than the bookies.
The mistakes these two groups made are actually typical of groups reaching consensus, and they happen in consumer research all the time. The AFL crowd reached a consensus that was too strong, and so their overconfidence in the Swans lead them to overestimate the score line.
On the other hand, the NRL crowd didn’t reach a strong consensus, and so they were more conservative in their prediction.
Ultimately what this means is, just because a group of people agree on something, doesn’t mean that what they agree on is correct.
Charles Bukowski has an entirely more eloquent take on the wisdom of the crowd.
Latest News
TV Ratings (18/04/2024): I’m A Celebrity Wins Prime Time And Key Demos
Aussie viewers can be a harsh lot at times. Only days after Ellie Cole bled her heart out, she has been sent packing.
Effie&co Launches New ConnectAsia Division To Help Aussie Brands Market To Asian Consumers Overseas & At Home
Not provided is advice on using chopsticks and not spilling ramen down your shirt.
Cashrewards Sets Out Stall For New CMO
Thinking of applying for the Cashrewards CMO gig? Here are some insider tips that, yes, are tantamount to cheating.
‘I Ask For The TV Industry To Stand Up And Defend Itself’ – Seven Boss James Warburton Steps Down
The Seven supremo heads for the exits after five years. Here's hoping the Spotlight team organised the farewell bash.
Poh! Jamie! Adriano! Paramount ANZ reveals its tasty plans for this year’s MasterChef
It's your fan's guide to this year's MasterChef! Although no tips on how to pronounce crudités or use a un fait-tout.
Dentsu’s iProspect Partners With MOOD Tea Ahead Of May Campaign Launch
We love a Mood Tea here at B&T. Although we do store old screws and nails in the International Roast caterer's tin.
Opinion: When Culture Starts Eating Itself: Navigating The Age Of Self-eating Nostalgia
Born boss David Coupland asks is adland going through a nostalgia period? But please, no repeats of Best Of Red Faces.
Who’s Going To Cannes?! The TikTok Young Lions Winners!
It's Aussie adland's next gen! They're off to Cannes with high hopes of bringing back a Lion & a foot-long Toblerone.
Adobe Launches Express Mobile App With Firefly AI
Want to be the coolest kid at Friday staff drinks but forgot your retro Nikes? This new Adobe wizardry may do the trick.
ThinkNewsBrands & IMAA Extend News Publishing Education In Brisbane
Industry duo takes its publishing roadshow to Brisbane. Was disappointed no male attendees were wearing walk socks.
B&T Chats With Wavemaker’s Provocative Pioneers On Their Cross-Pacific Sojourn
B&T TV heads to Wavemaker's Sydney digs to interview two staffers from its New York & LA digs. If that makes sense?
HoMie & Champion Launch “Give One. Get One” Campaign Supporting Youth Homelessness Via Town Square
Much like the fête's prized chutney wears a blue winners sash, so too should this top initiative from HoMie & Champion.
Thinkerbell Takes Us Back To Summer In Latest Work For XXXX
This beer ad wants to take you back to summer! Just minus any chance of a shark attack on your morning bus commute.
Cannes Lions Unveils 2024 Programme Featuring Queen Latifah, Jay Shetty & P&G’s Mark Pritchard
Are you one of the lucky ducks heading to Cannes in June? Check out the headliner acts you'll be queueing hours to see.
Scroll Media Recruits Costa Panagos From Twitch
Costa Panagos set to bring South American flair to the Scroll offices. Assuming that he is, indeed, South American.
Year13, Microsoft & KPMG Australia Launch AI Course For Gen Zs
Born around the 2000s? Need to amp up your AI creds? This guide's for you (although it's not really that age specific).
General Motors Snares Heath Walker From Scania
Do you rage about oversized American cars on our roads? You need to bail up Heath Walker at parties & industry events.
VML Launches New “Envoyage” Brand For Flight Centre
VML unveils new brand for travel operator Flight Centre. Alas, no sign of those paid actors pretending to be pilots.
Subaru Places Media Account Up For Review
Subaru puts media up for review, as adland journos get set for mandatory "agency drives off with..." headline.
TV Ratings (17/04/2024): Contestants Faced With Harsh Realities As Alone Australia Heats Up (Or Cools Down)
Alone still doing the business for SBS. Overly long train journeys not doing the business, but they persist anyway.
Ben Fordham Loses Number One Spot As Ray Hadley Celebrates 156th Ratings Win
The radio numbers are in! Discover who's off for a boozy lunch today & who's waiting for the dreaded HR death knock.
Gourmet Ice Cream Brand Connoisseur Launches New “Thrill Your Senses” Iteration, Via SICKDOGWOLFMAN
Rattling the old "truth in advertising" adage comes this ice-cream spot full of noticeably thin people.
Paramount’s Global Sales Boss: ‘Australia’s Converged Model Is A Blueprint For How I’d Like All Of Our Markets To Be’
Paramount's global sales boss gives local sales ops the thumbs up. Didn't weigh-in on the Lisa Wilkinson debacle.
TikTok Starts Testing Its Instagram Rival In Australia
In exciting news for piano playing cats & brattish pranks in shopping centres, TikTok unveils its Insta rival plans.
Man Wrongly Named By Seven As Bondi Killer Hires Lawyers
Struggling to save for a house deposit? Why not get wrongly identified by Sunrise!
Smartsheet Appoints Indie Agency Sandbox Media To Its Media Account
Can't stand your colleagues? Like to dob them in when they miss a deadline? These work management platforms are ideal.
Boss Not Letting You Come To Cannes In Cairns? Use This Business Case To Convince Them!
Stingy boss won't spring for a ticket to Cairns? Add this to your persuasive argument repertoire. Or grovel.
Alt/shift/ Brisbane Builds Portfolio With Ausbuild Creative, PR, Content & Social Account Win
The Brisbane comms/PR agency lands constructor Ausbuild. Also hoping for a discount on its new glass conservatory.
Young Guns Versus The Old Guard: Who Adds More Value to Our Industry?
Cannes In Cairns poking this hornet's nest in a lively debate. Just so long as the oldies can get up the stairs.
70% Of Aussies Don’t Have Green Power Plans ENGIE Says In Major Brand Campaign Via HERO
Are you the notorious "light leaver on-er" in your flatshare? Quell any infighting with this green energy news.
PrettyGood Launches Offering Brand & Media Solutions For Australasian SMEs
B&T applauds the charitable nature of this new agency. Although we'd hate to see it impact any Chrissie present sends.
A Blunt End: Dolphins Medicinal Cannabis Sponsorship At Risk
Yes, it's another NRL drug story. Yet, thankfully it doesn't involve coke in Kuta during the off-season.
Slew Of New Creative Hires At Leo Burnett Australia
Ahhh, all black! The outfit of choice for agency creatives, David Jones staff and everyone in Melbourne.
Under Armour Unveils Local “Live in UA” Campaign
American apparel brand set for yet another tilt at the Aussie market, as Nike declares "we'll see about that".
Pepsi Launches New Look, Refreshing Classic Fashion Staples Via Special PR
Are you always the bridesmaid, never the bride, as the old saying goes? How do you think Pepsi feels?
Pure Blonde Returns To A Place Purer Than Yours In New Campaign Via The Monkeys
B&T's always been a huge fan of the 'drink yourself thinner' diet plan. So big thanks to Pure blonde, vodka & tequila.