GroupM Predicting An Ad Rebound Of 12.8% In 2021; Digital To Represent 66% Of All Spends By 2024

This year will, in some ways, be remembered as more of a mild setback than an industry-changing economic catastrophe for the media business, says GroupM Global VP of Business Intelligence Brian Wieser in GroupM’s Global Media Forecast This Year Next Year.
Despite the grim realities of a global economy that will be the worst since the Great Depression, advertising weathered the storm relatively well and will end up at declining by “only” 5.8 per cent on an underlying basis (excluding-US political advertising).
This is a much better expectation than our June forecast of an 11.9 per cent decline for 2020, but still a sharp fall from 2019’s 8.7 per cent growth rate. Based on the resiliency of digital advertising through the pandemic, we’ve updated our 2021 outlook for the global advertising market from our June forecast of 8.2 per cent to 12.3 per cent growth.
The report noted:
Digital advertising is expected to grow by 8.2 per cent during 2020, excluding US political activity. This follows nearly a decade of double-digit growth, including the last six years, when it was better than 20 per cent globally.
- Digital advertising for pure-play media owners like Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc., should be 61 per cent of advertising in 2021. This share has doubled since 2015 when it was only 30.6 per cent.
- By 2024, we estimate digital advertising will have 66 per cent share globally.
Television advertising will decline by 15.1 per cent excluding US. political advertising, before rebounding to grow 7.8 per cent next year.
- Digital extensions and related media, including advertising associated with traditional media owners’ streaming activities (primarily on connected environments), will grow 7.8 per cent this year and 23.2 per cent next year.
Outdoor advertising is estimated to decline by 31 per cent during 2020, including digital out-of-home media. Next year should see a partial rebound, with 18 per cent growth.
- Beyond 2021, we expect outdoor advertising to grow by low- or mid-single digits and generally lose share of total advertising; however, we do expect larger brands generally to allocate more of their budgets to the medium.
Cinema is newly separated in our global forecast for markets where data could reasonably be estimated. The global sector likely generated less than $3 billion during 2019 and likely fell more than 75 per cent during 2020 given the absence of major studio releases in most markets around the world.
Print advertising, including newspapers and magazines, is expected to decline five per cent for the year, a significant acceleration over the high-single-digit declines of recent years. However, those single-digital declines should resume following an economic recovery.
Audio advertising is likely to decline by 24 per cent during 2020 as advertisers disinvest, in part, because of the medium’s dependence on away-from-home activities, such as driving. Digital extensions, including streaming services from terrestrial stations and their digitally oriented competitors and podcasts, still attract relatively small audiences of a few billion, but help make the broader medium more appealing to marketers.
Mark Lollback (main photo), GroupM Australia CEO said of the report: “Locally we saw the acceleration of trends like eCommerce which has drawn closer ties between marketing activity and purchasing as well as growth in BVOD audiences.
“Despite the challenges, within the disruption of this year there have been many opportunities to connect with consumers in different ways. Understanding the role media channels play overall in delivering objectives and enabling clients to maximise flexibility around consumer consumption trends in the short term, alongside long-term marketing goals are necessary as we move out of 2020.
“We have a sense of optimism going into 2021 and if we continue to lean into technology and the talented specialists in our agencies, and work closely with our media partners, we can continue to deliver outcomes for or clients and help drive the Australian economy forward,” Lollback said.
Latest News

Triple J’s Hottest 100: Only A Few Hundred Votes Separate First And Second Place!
Hottest 100 top songs of the year are neck and neck. B&T editor still working out who G Flip and Mallrat are.

Some Funny Bugger Has Stolen Pauline Hanson’s Website And Redirected It To The Refugee Council
It's a safe bet to assume "I don't like it" was uttered a few times up in Queensland this morning.

LinkedIn Launches Jobs Bootcamp To Make “2021 The Year Of Your Career”
B&T's hoping Uber Eats or Diageo will be the next company to launch an all-day Bootcamp.

WhatsApp Takes Out Full-Page Newspaper Ad To Address Privacy Concerns
After spending the last decade sending newspapers broke, Zuckerberg finally decides to throw them a bone with these ads.

Hailey Bieber, Kendall Jenner & Precious Lee Front Latest Versace Campaign
B&T's editor is more of a Lowes than Versace man, but he has been known to sport a colourful kaftan from time to time.

Greg ‘Blewey’ Blewett To Join Bernie And Jars For The Drive Home On Adelaide’s 104.7 Triple M
Adelaide's prodigal son is returning to the airwaves. Greg Blewett that is, not Guy Sebastian.

Lotame Extends New Cookieless ID Solution With Magnite, Sovrn, Eyeota And Advance Local Integrations
Dissapointingly, Lotame not rolling up sleeves and baking double choc cookies, as featured image would suggest.

Landor Australia Rebrands Women’s Tennis Association
Women's Tennis Association undergoes first rebrand in a decade, and not one tennis racket was thrown in a tantrum.

Collingwood Women’s Football Team Partners With AIA Australia
Collingwood women’s football team partners With AIA Australia. B&T hears it was a beautiful ceremony.

“Focus On Paying For Original Content”: Treasurer Slams Google’s Move To Block News Stories
Not one but two stories about Aussie politicians today. No, you're not reading The Guardian.

Integral Ad Science Acquires Amino Payments
Amino Payments joins the IAS family. Hopefully they don't get the middle child treatment.

Volkswagen Unveils Electric SUV, The ID.4, In Stunning Spot ‘The Wheel’ Via Johannes Leonardo
Zoetropes, a praxinoscope, early projectors, and a phenakistoscope have all been used to channel what is considered a monumental moment for carmaker Volkswagen in a new short by Johannes Leonardo. Directed by Sam Brown, the 90-second film ‘The Wheel’ uses some of the oldest devices of motion in film—the Zoetrope (praxinoscope, early projectors, and phenakistoscope)—as […]

ENGINE Group Australia Launches Media Agency
B&T will be extremely disappointed if the agency isn't asking its clients to "Rev the ENGINE" with this move.

DoubleVerify Earns MRC Accreditation For CTV Measurement
DoubleVerify earns this new accreditation which sadly does not come with a gold star or a giant sticker.

Rob Reilly Appointed As WPP Global Chief Creative Officer
Rob Reilly wins the race of WPP global CCO. Although not without a slight Achilles tendon tear, B&T understands.

R/GA Lands Uber Global Social Account As Agency Of Record
R/GA team excited about instantly scoring a 5 star Uber rating following this global win.

Four Celebrities Required Medical Attention Following Crazy Challenge On 10’s I’m A Celeb
I'm A Celeb contestants required medical attention following ice challenge. The water kind, not the hard drug kind.

M&C Saatchi Sport And Entertainment Nabs Richie Butterworth As Head Of Sponsorship
Butterworth begins new role with M&C Saatchi, where brick walls are soon to be painted minimalist white.

“Intentional And By Design”: How Val Morgan Digital Is Positioning Itself As An Advertiser’s Playground
Val Morgan is cementing itself as an advertiser's playground just minus the booze, cocaine and arancini balls.

TikTok Strengthens Protections For Under-18 Users
TikTok users over the age of 30 continue to be protected too, owing to the fact they don't really know how to use it.

Rebel Kitchen Calls Trump An Ass In Hidden Message On Outdoor Ads
As far as names Donald Trump has been called in recent days, 'ass' certainly ranks at the lower end.

Google Australia Set To Bury News Articles For Some Ahead Of News Media Bargaining Code
Google set to start burying certain articles. We're unsure if they will be able to find a big enough shovel.

The Athlete’s Foot Launches 2021 Back To School Campaign
When it comes to the downsides of being a parent, buying $150 shoes that are outgrown within months is right up there.

Brad Pitt Fronts Miraval Rosé’s First-Ever Ad Campaign With A Repurposed Image
If ever there was someone with no need for retouching it would have to be Brad Pitt.

Dentsu’s iProspect To Absorb Vizeum Globally
Dentsu continues to streamline operations with this move. It was either this merger or the coffee machine, staff told.

Nine & Stan Eye Off NBL Rights
On an unrelated note, Hugh Marks spotted practising his alley-oops and free throws at the North Sydney basketball courts.

Creepy Or Convenient?
If B&T's editor could think of a three-word headline for every story he'd be retired by now.

Cannes Confirms Plans To Go Ahead In 2021
Want to sip rosé on the French Riviera while keeping a respectable 1.5m distance from adland's best? Good news today.

OMA Appoints Ipsos To Rebuild MOVE For The Digital Age
Upset at B&T's lately acronym-lite newsletter? This article makes up for it in spades.

Is Moving The Australian F1 Grand Prix to November The Best News The Event (And Its Sponsors) Has Ever Had?
Is the F1 move the best thing to happen to the events industry EVER? It's either that or the invention of the slider.