Australian advertisers are flocking away from linear TV in favour of search and social, according to a new report from Zenith.
The latest of the Advertising Expenditure Forecasts shows steady global growth of 4.4 per cent per year to 2021, with Australia slightly behind the global average at 2.8 per cent.
This is slightly down from the 4.6 per cent figure predicted in June, with global economic and political uncertainty meaning advertisers are showing caution, even with a ‘quadrennial’ year with major events such as US elections, the Summer Olympics and the UEFA Euro 2020 tournament coming up next year.
The report also highlights a significant changing of the guard in global advertising, with global social media spend in 2019 ($124.8bn) to outweigh print ($102.5bn) for the first time.
Zenith head of investment, Sydney, Elizabeth Baker highlighted the continued rise of social.
“Social is in a state of transition, with international platforms like TikTok, Pinterest and Twitch gaining significant traction among younger audiences – representing new opportunities for brands,” she said.
For internet adspend in Australia, Search is tipped to rise by 3.7 per cent per year until 2021, by which time it will account for 25 per cent of the nation adspend at $4.3bn.
However, this will ultimately come at the expense of other platforms, with linear broadcast TV set to suffer in particular.
Shrinking ratings mean linear will only account for 20 per cent ($3.5bn) of the Australian market by 2021, well below the global figure of 27 per cent.
“To reflect the economic environment and in consideration of latest SMI ad spend data, we have revised our 2019 TV forecast to -3.3 per cent,” Baker said.
“However, we should start seeing more stability in revenue as we cycle against a weaker 2018 back quarter.
“In better news for our TV networks, BVOD revenue is booming and we anticipate growth will continue as measurable trading across linear and BVOD content is enabled via the launch of VOZ in 2020.”