Algorithm Or Alchemy: You Put Rubbish In, You Get Rubbish Out
B&T’s regular columnist and contrarian, Robert Strohfeldt of Strohfeldt Consulting, argues we’re all too dependant on the latest algorithm – to our peril…
Machines have been replacing people since the industrial revolution. The pyramids would be knocked up a hell of a lot faster (with much less loss of life) using modern machinery and techniques. (Though it could be argued that the build quality would not be improved upon – check out inner city Sydney units built in the last five years.)
Moving from the industrial to the information age, we are now experiencing machines (computers) taking over the thinking once done by people at an ever – increasing rate. And there is no argument that computers are much faster and more accurate than people. They are also a hell of a lot cheaper and don’t carry the “baggage” that many people bring to a job. (Never had to fire a computer for making an unwanted pass at the photocopier).
As computers evolved, they have become smaller, faster and permeated virtually every aspect of our lives. We now have a whole generation who have not experienced life without computers. (Nor could they imagine life without them).
I was helping a good friend who is a professional musician and guitar teacher research online guitar courses and came across the following:
“After playing guitar for over 12 years, we tried the most popular lessons online, rated each with a custom algorithm and then wrote reviews to help other guitarists choose.”
It reminded me of the numerous times I see the use of “algorithm”. No matter what you want done, there is an algorithm available for it:
- A business who monitors and does analyses of social media by: Aggregating all a company’s social media posts and using an algorithm to determine which are the most relevant.
- A business started by a dual rugby league/union international uses “an algorithm” to identify power players with the most potential to change consumer behaviour. (Links brands to sports stars’ social media followers).
- Media planning and buying: “An algorithm is used to select and buy the most cost effective schedule from available online media inventory.”
It seems that once an “algorithm” is brought into play, then the result it spits out is automatically deemed to be correct.
Should there be a rigorous examination of the said algorithm, rather than blind acceptance of the outcome?
Take the question of programmatic buying. With so much online media inventory, old style calculations would take an eternity. Computers literally calculate at the speed of light; therefore, it is obvious that the numbers are crunched by computer. There are too many combinations and permutations for an individual with a calculator to attempt.
So, the question is not “is programmatic buying” a feasible solution, rather how good is the program (or algorithm) being used? What calculations and assumptions were made and what is the accuracy or validity of each?
The same applies to the social media and sport stars’ algorithms.
For the social media algorithm, someone must first make assumptions on which words or phrases are deemed relevant. If any of these assumptions are incorrect, then the resulting algorithm is going to be incorrect.
Identifying sports’ stars with the ability to change human behaviour would logically extend to any celebrity or high profile individual. How the hell does one determine if a person can change human behaviour? Changing human behaviour is far more complex than asking the question ‘If (sport star a) recommended this product, how likely would you be to buy it?”
Having a magic algorithm sounds so far more in tune with the digital age. A victory for marketing fashion over function (again).
A basic fact often forgotten, or not understood – that a person does the thinking, a computer does as it is instructed.
Quite often the individual writing the code or algorithm knows very little about the topic for which the algorithm is being developed.
Airbnb, is a huge international success. As a disruptive business that would not exist if not for the internet, you would assume they have their act together. We use it for a property on the Gold Coast.
They introduced a new algorithm, called “Smart Pricing”. The price of accommodation varies – school holidays, Christmas, New Year, Easter etc. Instead of manually going through every day in each month of the calendar and entering a price, “Smart Pricing” uses an algorithm to calculate the pricing for you automatically. All you do is set a minimum and maximum price for it to work from.
A great idea in principal, saving a lot of time and for some, much guess work. It wasn’t long before we received a request for two nights, 4 months in advance – the price the algorithm quoted wasn’t sufficient to cover costs for cleaning. It was less than one quarter of the minimum price that was set. (Yet the “algorithm” asks to input your minimum and maximum prices). The person writing the code did not know how to do the maths to work out a price variance equation based on demand and a fluctuating occupancy continuum – minimum and maximum price of the property and because Airbnb asks for 100% of the accommodation cost at the time of booking, guests book “short” rather than “long” – a shit load of variables that require a detailed understanding of mathematics, not some code monkey’s basic statistics. In this instance the mistake was so obvious, it was easily picked up.
But what if the calculation is for say, programmatic media planning? A good way to illustrate the difference between “calculating” and “thinking” is a headline and introduction for a recent story in TheDrum:
Mercedes-Benz asks agencies to ‘review’ safe media list as brands respond to ‘programmatic terror’ dilemma.
A report that some of the world’s biggest brands are inadvertently funding extremism and pornography through programmatic ads has prompted Mercedes-Benz to review the platforms and channels it considers safe.
The next “big thing” after programmatic is the development of algorithms to create advertising and content – computer generated creative. Good luck. Determining all the variables at play is close to an impossible task and adding further to the difficulty, the variables influencing the creative output vary from situation to situation, even when working within strict corporate guidelines. The human brain is the most complex piece of “machinery” on earth and many of its workings are still a mystery to research scientists. How the hell does one develop a computer programme (sorry, algorithm) to duplicate something that no one truly understands the workings of?
If anything, computers are dumbing us down – the Google syndrome: “I know the answer but have absolutely no understanding of how it is derived.”
We are still a long way from artificial intelligence. (Singularity, when artificial intelligence overtakes human intelligence.) All algorithms are an analysis of a problem, using a pre-determined formula and assumptions developed by a person. Yes, some are incredibly complex and developed from “machine learning”, but the “learning” is programmed. Deduction is not imagination.
An algorithm cannot turn lead into gold any more than it is an infallible, “magic” solution to a problem or calculation to which the path to the answer is not already known.
So rather than merely accept a conclusion is correct because an algorithm was used, the question should be “can we see the formula and assumptions used to develop the algorithm”?
You don’t have to be a code writer or mathematician to do this. Understanding of and experience in your area of practice will tell you if the assumptions made are correct.
The basics really don’t change. And when it comes to algorithms, programmes or what- ever term is deemed the most fashionable, the absolute fundamental that has been around since the first computer was invented still holds true:
Rubbish In = Rubbish Out.
Latest News
TV Ratings (18/04/2024): I’m A Celebrity Wins Prime Time And Key Demos
Aussie viewers can be a harsh lot at times. Only days after Ellie Cole bled her heart out, she has been sent packing.
Effie&co Launches New ConnectAsia Division To Help Aussie Brands Market To Asian Consumers Overseas & At Home
Not provided is advice on using chopsticks and not spilling ramen down your shirt.
Cashrewards Sets Out Stall For New CMO
Thinking of applying for the Cashrewards CMO gig? Here are some insider tips that, yes, are tantamount to cheating.
‘I Ask For The TV Industry To Stand Up And Defend Itself’ – Seven Boss James Warburton Steps Down
The Seven supremo heads for the exits after five years. Here's hoping the Spotlight team organised the farewell bash.
Poh! Jamie! Adriano! Paramount ANZ reveals its tasty plans for this year’s MasterChef
It's your fan's guide to this year's MasterChef! Although no tips on how to pronounce crudités or use a un fait-tout.
Dentsu’s iProspect Partners With MOOD Tea Ahead Of May Campaign Launch
We love a Mood Tea here at B&T. Although we do store old screws and nails in the International Roast caterer's tin.
Opinion: When Culture Starts Eating Itself: Navigating The Age Of Self-eating Nostalgia
Born boss David Coupland asks is adland going through a nostalgia period? But please, no repeats of Best Of Red Faces.
Who’s Going To Cannes?! The TikTok Young Lions Winners!
It's Aussie adland's next gen! They're off to Cannes with high hopes of bringing back a Lion & a foot-long Toblerone.
Adobe Launches Express Mobile App With Firefly AI
Want to be the coolest kid at Friday staff drinks but forgot your retro Nikes? This new Adobe wizardry may do the trick.
ThinkNewsBrands & IMAA Extend News Publishing Education In Brisbane
Industry duo takes its publishing roadshow to Brisbane. Was disappointed no male attendees were wearing walk socks.
B&T Chats With Wavemaker’s Provocative Pioneers On Their Cross-Pacific Sojourn
B&T TV heads to Wavemaker's Sydney digs to interview two staffers from its New York & LA digs. If that makes sense?
HoMie & Champion Launch “Give One. Get One” Campaign Supporting Youth Homelessness Via Town Square
Much like the fête's prized chutney wears a blue winners sash, so too should this top initiative from HoMie & Champion.
Thinkerbell Takes Us Back To Summer In Latest Work For XXXX
This beer ad wants to take you back to summer! Just minus any chance of a shark attack on your morning bus commute.
Cannes Lions Unveils 2024 Programme Featuring Queen Latifah, Jay Shetty & P&G’s Mark Pritchard
Are you one of the lucky ducks heading to Cannes in June? Check out the headliner acts you'll be queueing hours to see.
Scroll Media Recruits Costa Panagos From Twitch
Costa Panagos set to bring South American flair to the Scroll offices. Assuming that he is, indeed, South American.
Year13, Microsoft & KPMG Australia Launch AI Course For Gen Zs
Born around the 2000s? Need to amp up your AI creds? This guide's for you (although it's not really that age specific).
General Motors Snares Heath Walker From Scania
Do you rage about oversized American cars on our roads? You need to bail up Heath Walker at parties & industry events.
VML Launches New “Envoyage” Brand For Flight Centre
VML unveils new brand for travel operator Flight Centre. Alas, no sign of those paid actors pretending to be pilots.
Subaru Places Media Account Up For Review
Subaru puts media up for review, as adland journos get set for mandatory "agency drives off with..." headline.
TV Ratings (17/04/2024): Contestants Faced With Harsh Realities As Alone Australia Heats Up (Or Cools Down)
Alone still doing the business for SBS. Overly long train journeys not doing the business, but they persist anyway.
Ben Fordham Loses Number One Spot As Ray Hadley Celebrates 156th Ratings Win
The radio numbers are in! Discover who's off for a boozy lunch today & who's waiting for the dreaded HR death knock.
Gourmet Ice Cream Brand Connoisseur Launches New “Thrill Your Senses” Iteration, Via SICKDOGWOLFMAN
Rattling the old "truth in advertising" adage comes this ice-cream spot full of noticeably thin people.
Paramount’s Global Sales Boss: ‘Australia’s Converged Model Is A Blueprint For How I’d Like All Of Our Markets To Be’
Paramount's global sales boss gives local sales ops the thumbs up. Didn't weigh-in on the Lisa Wilkinson debacle.
TikTok Starts Testing Its Instagram Rival In Australia
In exciting news for piano playing cats & brattish pranks in shopping centres, TikTok unveils its Insta rival plans.
Man Wrongly Named By Seven As Bondi Killer Hires Lawyers
Struggling to save for a house deposit? Why not get wrongly identified by Sunrise!
Smartsheet Appoints Indie Agency Sandbox Media To Its Media Account
Can't stand your colleagues? Like to dob them in when they miss a deadline? These work management platforms are ideal.
Boss Not Letting You Come To Cannes In Cairns? Use This Business Case To Convince Them!
Stingy boss won't spring for a ticket to Cairns? Add this to your persuasive argument repertoire. Or grovel.
Alt/shift/ Brisbane Builds Portfolio With Ausbuild Creative, PR, Content & Social Account Win
The Brisbane comms/PR agency lands constructor Ausbuild. Also hoping for a discount on its new glass conservatory.
Young Guns Versus The Old Guard: Who Adds More Value to Our Industry?
Cannes In Cairns poking this hornet's nest in a lively debate. Just so long as the oldies can get up the stairs.
70% Of Aussies Don’t Have Green Power Plans ENGIE Says In Major Brand Campaign Via HERO
Are you the notorious "light leaver on-er" in your flatshare? Quell any infighting with this green energy news.
PrettyGood Launches Offering Brand & Media Solutions For Australasian SMEs
B&T applauds the charitable nature of this new agency. Although we'd hate to see it impact any Chrissie present sends.
A Blunt End: Dolphins Medicinal Cannabis Sponsorship At Risk
Yes, it's another NRL drug story. Yet, thankfully it doesn't involve coke in Kuta during the off-season.
Slew Of New Creative Hires At Leo Burnett Australia
Ahhh, all black! The outfit of choice for agency creatives, David Jones staff and everyone in Melbourne.
Under Armour Unveils Local “Live in UA” Campaign
American apparel brand set for yet another tilt at the Aussie market, as Nike declares "we'll see about that".
Pepsi Launches New Look, Refreshing Classic Fashion Staples Via Special PR
Are you always the bridesmaid, never the bride, as the old saying goes? How do you think Pepsi feels?
Pure Blonde Returns To A Place Purer Than Yours In New Campaign Via The Monkeys
B&T's always been a huge fan of the 'drink yourself thinner' diet plan. So big thanks to Pure blonde, vodka & tequila.