Predicting the future through design
We are all acutely aware that the future is impossible to predict.
So if businesses simply react to changes or trends as they happen, how can they maintain a competitive edge?
The strategic use of design can provide some answers.
Author Nassim Taleb coined the term anti-fragile, that characterises how something can grow and increase in strength when it is exposed to unpredictable or random circumstances.
This paradigm is useful when designing organisations, as well as new products and services. To become anti-fragile, businesses need to abandon long-term strategising, planning and incremental innovation for flexibility through design. At that point, change is no longer the enemy but effectively becomes a friend. As Charles Darwin said: “It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change.”
Apple’s development of iTunes and the iPod is a great example of applying anti-fragile characteristics through design. In 1998, Apple missed the music rip-off and burning trend, neglecting to add a CD-burner to their iMac. Their design team, without delay, came up with iTunes and iPod in 2001, a legal alternative, leapfrogging the eventually declared illegal Napster in 2001. Leveraging Apple’s ability to design the synchronisation of software, effectively changed the way we now consume music.
Design has been shown to contribute to the progress of organisations at four, increasingly integrated levels:
- Lowest level – differentiating offerings,
- Second level – streamlining the process,
- Third level – creating unique internal and external configurations and;
- Top level – assisting in the creation of actionable strategies.
Design-oriented businesses manage the lower and second levels of differentiation and process well. Yet the strategic use of design at the top level is recognised by only a few of the world’s top brands such as Apple, Dyson, Nike and BMW.
Strategic use of design requires integration into the corporate culture, organisational architecture and procedures, and needs to be as methodically managed as any other business investment.
When Apple decided to develop the iPhone, the firm was entering a fiercely competitive and adaptive market with low malleability and low predictability. Plenty of marketing data was available for traditional cell phones and Apple’s touch screen concept was rooted in a mature and proven technology. Apple had gained some experience by launching a short-lived phone together with Motorola in 2005 and felt that compromising with a non-Apple designer hurt the offering.
What then CEO Steve Jobs did, was to pursue a strategic disruptive innovation direction. He envisioned Apple leveraging its ability to provide excellent synchronisation software by betting on cell phones becoming essential devices for portable information access. When launched in July 2007, the iPhone disrupted the entire cell phone market, effectively driving Nokia out of the business, which previously had close to fifty percent of market share.
In this instance, the top level application of design helped Apple achieved it’s strategic goals in sales, brand value and stock performance. The new category Smartphone, enjoyed explosive growth and Apple successfully positioned itself in synchronisation software. The firm's brand value (according to Interbrand) went up by 790% from 2007 to 2013 and its share price grew by 530% from January 2007 to October 2013.
Top design driven organisations cultivate design experts, managers and leaders, while nurturing a culture that encourages design excellence. To accomplish this requires continued development of a design approach, which is tailored to the organisations strategic environment and business strategy, whether it is sustainable or disruptive.
However, this is just the admission ticket for becoming a design driven business. Continuous development of new capabilities is needed to stay ahead of the curve. This is where Design Science can make a significant contribution as an essential capability.
Design Science is the continuous building of an organisation’s understanding of design as well as the development of new support tools. The foundation for Design Science is based on solid data and research lead by Stanford Center for Design Research (CDR).
Myself and other design practitioners have collaborated with Stanford CDR to take on tough questions such as “How best to include design in the business development phase” and “What is the link between business strategies and the performance of design execution?”
Some of the key findings from the studies show that the strategic use of design and inclusion of design in business development can increase design performance by up to 30%, reduce the risk of budget overrun in the conceptual phase by up to 60% and reduce the number of intuition biases creeping into design concepts by up to 75%, leading to a performance increase up to 40%.
Like global brand Apple, Australian businesses have the potential to take design to the next level and reap the financial rewards.
S√∏ren Ingomar Petersen, Design Strategist
Soren will be speaking about leveraging design in business at the agIdeas Business Advantage Breakfast on Thursday 3 April. He’ll be joined by a panel of Australian business leaders from Qantas, Geelong Football Club, Heinz and The Laminex Group. More information can be found by clicking here.
Please login with linkedin to comment
Latest News
The Unapproved Climate Certification Allegedly Causing Mass Greenwashing
Are you left flummoxed in the canned tuna & free range eggs aisle? Just wait till this green certification gets up.
TV Ratings (22/04/2024): Fans Mock “Over The Top” Reaction To New MasterChef Judges
MasterChef returns for its 2024 season. B&T stands by putting peppercorns in Gravox & no one will be any the wiser.
Dentsu Restructure: Muddle, Harvey & Johnston Take Leadership Baton As Bass & Yurisich Exit
A large broom has swept through Dentsu's local ops this morning, taking with it some big names & the air con's cobwebs.
Industry Shares Trends Shaping The Industry This International Creators Day
B&T's asking adland creators to reveal their top trends. And it's not good news for your Jenny Kee cardigan collection.
Mable Extends HOYTS Sensory Screenings Partnership
Mable has extended its HOYTS sensory screening partnership. Vigorously defends its two-star Oppenheimer review.
Orphan Launches ‘They Need Our Help. We Need Yours’ For Children’s Cancer Institute
Anything to do with childhood cancers has B&T's 110% support. That said, we do ignore the red meat & alcohol warnings.
Smile Team Orthodontics & Keep Left Collaborate On Smile-Inducing Campaign
As parents would attest, given the cost of orthodontics you'd expect this campaign to be a lavish production indeed.
Opinion: How Video Calls Neglect Learning Diversity
Need an excuse to duck out of a video call this arvo? Show this to your boss.
DoubleVerify Achieves First-Of-Its-Kind Responsible AI Certification From TrustArc
DoubleVerify receives responsible AI certification. However, not its robotic vacuum that's been seen menacing the cat.
Smile For A Good Cause: The Social Media Campaign Giving Back To The Community
Are you known as the office Austin Powers? More for you teeth than shagability? Get snappy new fangs with this news.
Elon Musk Mocks Albo After ESafety Wins Court Injunction Against X
Albo's 2024 from hell continues - Rabbitohs in crisis, down in the polls and now feuding with world's richest man.
Real Estate Developer In Hot Water Over “Sexually Exploitative” OOH Campaign
Real estate agents again tops in the 'least trusted profession' polls, nudging used car salesmen & ad creatives.
Epsilon’s Shane Hanby: Post-Cookie Era Relies On “Teamwork” Between Brands, Marketers & Tech
This pro predicts more "teamwork" in a post-cookie era. Which spells bad news for the uncooperative or plain stubborn.
Entries For Five Decades Of Advertising Graduates Awards Close On Monday
Entries for the Five Decades of Advertising awards close Monday. And no extensions! Any bribery is open til Wednesday.
Cadbury Extends Commitment To Women’s Sport With Sweet New Wallaroos Deal
Rot your teeth, get fat and support women's sport all at the same time with this sweet new sponsorship arrangement.
Campfire X & Nando’s Partner To Acknowledge Traditional Land Owners Across Australia
Chicken chain unveils important First Nations initiative. The actual chickens more concerned with the Adani coal mine.
Lisa Ronson, Naysla Edwards & Ben Hill Join MFA Awards Signature Judging Panel
MFA Awards adds some serious clout to its judging panel. Still no confirmation Paulini will be performing on the night.
Connect Hearing ‘Sounds Good’ Platform Via Bread Agency
Every office has that one hard of hearing person that's oblivious to the fact. Ramp up their insecurities with this.
Ipsos Iris Data: Australians Prioritise Entertainment & Sports Over Serious News In March
Data shows Aussies prioritising light entertainment over hard news. And who can blame them if you've seen the hard news!
Fur Media Partners With Mad Paws To Support Advertisers
It's never good if your office smells like faeces & brine chunks in aspic. Not if you're pet-friendly agency Fur Media.
MAXIBON Drops Epic Flavour Collaboration Via SICKDOGWOLFMAN
There are few pluses to be had with global warming, except the extension of ice-cream eating season.
Sling & Stone Scrubs Up With Lush Account
Got friends at Sling & Stone? Expect the dreaded loofah and bath bomb for birthdays/Christmas this year.
SBS’s The Cook Up With Adam Liaw Produces ‘Fewer CO2 Emissions Than Industry Average’
SBS could go full vegan for Adam Liaw's seventh season and reduce its TV audience and emissions by 99 per cent.
GumGum & Playground xyz To Merge Media Portfolio, Creating “Powerhouse” Ad Suite
GumGum & Playground xyz tap into consumer mindset. B&T prefers tapping a keg, but whatever works.
All The Winners & Grinners From The TikTok Young Lions Awards Night!
Last week saw every part of the human experience: Exalted, devastated, exhausted & stuffing sausage rolls in the corner.
TV Ratings (21/4/24): Farmer Wants A Wife Wins Sunday Prime Time
Farmer Wants A Wife does make the country life seductive. Apart from the manure stench & the bleating roosters at 5am.
Australia’s Automotive Industry Shifts Gears With CTV
How much was CTV responsible for Australia's record car sales in 2023? Or those horrible oversized American utes?
Australia’s C7EVEN Communications Launches Services In Japan With New Tokyo Office
Aussie comms agency unveils its Tokyo plans. Confirms it's still getting the hang of the toilets over there.
Daniel Goldstein Promoted To Head Of PR At Example
Try as he may to surreptitiously blend in with the wall in his photo, this PR fellow still relatively easy to spot.
Marie Claire & Volvo Partner For The Planet: Nominees For The Inaugural Marie Claire Sustainability Awards Announced
Fashion bible Marie Claire unveils its Sustainability Awards. Yet still refusing to recycle 2023's maxi skirts trend.
Sefiani Unveils A Wave Of Promotions & Appointments
Life's good in PR/comms as Sefiani unveils new hires. Well, bad news for media sites obsessed with redundancy stories.
Yahoo Launches Identity Solutions For CTV
Connected TV just got a whole lot more exciting with this innovation. Bar the incessant Friends re-runs.
Infosum Launches Data Clean Room Solution With Samsung Ads Australia
Infosum & Samsung Ads launch a data clean room solution that's a lot more than a Wettex & squirt of Ajax.
Fast 10: Bread Agency’s Amaury Treguer On Its “Unrivalled” Social Commerce Focus
Bread Agency's Amaury Treguer takes B&T's Fast 10, as he reveals why he won't be sandwiched up against the opposition.
X And Elon Musk To Sue Australia’s eSafety Commissioner Over Sydney Stabbing Takedown Order
If this all wasn't traumatic enough, Elon weighs in to prove he's the world's richest man & world's biggest dickhead.
CRA Siren Award To Be Presented At B&T Awards 2024!
Often attend award nights & think "I wish this night would never end"? Well, B&T's just got that tiny bit longer.