“Predicting What Facebook And Google Will Be Doing In 2021 Is A Fool’s Game”: Rob Strohfeldt

“Predicting What Facebook And Google Will Be Doing In 2021 Is A Fool’s Game”: Rob Strohfeldt
SHARE
THIS



In yesterday’s doom and gloom article that claimed everyone in Adland besides Google and Facebook will be fucked, Andrew Birmingham predicted a bleak future for the industry. Today, resident columnist and founder of Strohfeldt Consulting, Rob Strohfeldt, has penned a rebuttal.

Adolf Hitler said, “If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed”.

Now, that’s not to say the purveyors of the above article are Nazis, rather they are once again proving the cornerstone of Hitler’s rise to power. (And the fact that the basics of persuasion/propaganda/advertising have not changed since people started to walk upright).

Predicting the future is extremely difficult. Predictions are based on what we know at present. The problem is that between the present and some date in the future, unforeseen events occur that void all of the assumptions on which the predictions are based.

At the start of this century (January 1, 2001), many very intelligent, experienced people predicted what the following decade would look like. Then, eight months later, a bunch of nutters thought it would be a good idea to fly passenger jets into buildings.

The rest, as the saying goes, is history and all of the predictions went out the window.

Facebook and Google are classified as technology companies, not media companies. As it stands, they are not constrained by the same legislative framework that dictates how traditional media companies operate. Here is one prediction that is pretty safe to make – that won’t be allowed to continue.

So predicting what Facebook and Google will be doing in 2021 is a fool’s game. There are too many vested interests, by too many powerful individuals, companies, organisations and governments to allow the status quo to continue.

Leaving aside the crystal ball, let’s have a look at the “big lie” (Actually, a few big lies).

  1. Agencies who deal with the traditional media need to understand that money is going to shift out of things like free to air TV. Money will follow eyeballs and the money is flowing to the other channels. For example, more people are watching video and the money will naturally follow that.

Professor Mark Ritson has been presenting real figures on where the eyeballs are flowing – and they are still fixed on TV. Around 84.5 per cent of video today in Australia is watched on TV. Mobile is used for a wide range of reasons, but it accounts for just over four per cent of video watched.

Rather than regurgitate his presentation to the AANA, everyone working in advertising and marketing today should just watch it:

The “big lie” has been in how the digital numbers are presented. They bury the truth and no one wants to dig for it. Of course, there are too many vested interests to keep the big lie rolling.

Let’s look at another big lie.

  1. Creatives love to think nothing beats their human genius but there’s a whole heap of companies like Adobe who are doing a stack of work on making ads made basically by computers. They’ll make tailor-made ads directly to suit the viewer in their favourite colours and models and style. It’s pretty clear that’s where the technology will take us in five to 10 years’ time.

This could only be written by an IT person – the same people who coined the idiotic term “digital marketer”.

I’m not sure what a non-digital marketer does, but it is obvious that those who call themselves “digital marketers” are bloody IT people who think they are creative.

It is similar to when desktop publishing first came in. Anyone who knew how to work a design programme was suddenly a “creative”.

There is a massive difference between machine learning and genuine artificial intelligence. Singularity is the term used for when artificial intelligence overtakes human intelligence. The race to genuine AI shows how disconnected from reality some IT people are, when they say, “Hey, let’s invent a computer that is smarter than us, knows it doesn’t need us and will quickly come to the conclusion that we are a possible threat”.

Obviously life sciences, in particular evolution, was not a strong point in their education. Considering how technology has been having the cumulative effect of dumbing down the human race, this may occur sooner than the forecast year of 2050. (A long way off 2021).

The music industry has recently lost two creative giants – David Bowie and Prince. A computer can create dance music. (Even a kid can, just ask “Black Summer”. No need for an algorithm, just some bloody oats. He should call himself Phar Lap).

Be it music, art, writing or even advertising, great creative is the development of something totally new. Machine learning, as opposed to genuine AI, works on past creative endeavors to produce the “creative outcome”.

Computer generated creative just keeps giving people the same old shit they liked before, but it is incapable of moving outside of past endeavors and creating something totally new and different. Again, think Bowie and Prince.

The difference between creative and IT is, for creative people, technology is just a tool. For the IT crowd, technology is the answer and most of the people are tools.

 

Latest News

Daylight Agency Appoints Shelley Hammond As Director Of Agency Operations
  • Media

Daylight Agency Appoints Shelley Hammond As Director Of Agency Operations

The Daylight Agency’s significant growth has continued with the appointment of Shelley Hammond as Director of Agency Operations. Shelley is a leader in the global communications industry and brings vast experience following senior roles in major corporates as well as the agency environment. Shelley will be responsible for the commercial running of Daylight including client retention and […]

Host/Havas Takes Out Cannes Grand Prix With Palau Pledge
  • Advertising

Host/Havas Takes Out Cannes Grand Prix With Palau Pledge

Host/Havas has secured Australia’s first grand prix award at Cannes overnight, taking out the top gong for the direct lions with its work Palau Pledge. The work, which sees all visitors to the tiny island nation have their passport stamped with a pledge to be a good environmental citizen, which they must sign before entering […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Instagram Launches Long-Form Video
  • Technology

Instagram Launches Long-Form Video

Instagram unveils new eye-catching feature. Slicing onions while reading this will also make it eye-watering.

Ridley Scott Unveils New Directors Showcase At Cannes
  • Media

Ridley Scott Unveils New Directors Showcase At Cannes

Curated this year by Ridley Scott, famed director of Alien, The Martian and other classics, The New Directors Showcase at Cannes is now in its 28th year. Acting as a platform for talented new directors to have their work premiered to a global audience, Scott took to the stage in front of a full house […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
ANZ, PHD & JCDecaux Harness The Power Of Data
  • Advertising
  • Campaigns

ANZ, PHD & JCDecaux Harness The Power Of Data

ANZ and media agency PHD have partnered with JCDecaux to launch a unique campaign that harnesses the power of data across three cities incorporating actual tram, train and bus timetable information to align with the new ANZ App.

Report: Consumers Are Hitting Play On Mobile Video
  • Technology

Report: Consumers Are Hitting Play On Mobile Video

Ooyala survey finds media companies created and processed nearly three times as much video content in Q1 as Media Companies Created & Processed Nearly Three Times As Much Video Content in Q1 2018 vs. Q1 2017.

Intrepid Travel Go Back 30 Years, Posting Classified Adverts In Newspapers
  • Campaigns

Intrepid Travel Go Back 30 Years, Posting Classified Adverts In Newspapers

Intrepid Travel has gone back in time and is placing classified adverts for a new ‘mystery expedition’ to places that yet mapped by Google.  The adverts to be placed in Courier Mail, Herald Sun and Sunday Telegraph are calling for intrepid people to join a journey with “long travel days, intermittent electricity, no Wi-Fi, cold […]

Watching tv and using remote control
  • Advertising
  • Media

GroupM Investment Forecast For Australia: TV On The Rise As Digital Slips

GroupM has updated its 2018 ad investment forecasts and released its initial 2019 outlook. GroupM predicts $24B in net new advertising investment this year, the best annual increment since the bounce back from the global recession in 2010 when $26B was added to investment. GroupM estimates total advertising investment will grow by 4.5 per cent this year […]

Indigenous Campaign Deemed Too Controversial By APN Media To Run
  • Advertising
  • Campaigns

Indigenous Campaign Deemed Too Controversial By APN Media To Run

Aboriginal Victoria’s campaign in support of Australia’s first-ever treaty legislation, Deadly Questions, has been deemed too controversial to run by one of Australia’s leading outdoor media providers, APN Media. Online platform Deadly Questions provides a safe space for people to ask questions and have them answered by Aboriginal Victorians, to learn more about their cultures, […]

Introducing: YouTube Music Australia
  • Technology

Introducing: YouTube Music Australia

The wait is over! Starting today, YouTube Music is available to everyone in Australia, New Zealand, the U.S, Mexico and South Korea in addition to 12 new countries including Austria, Canada, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Russia, Spain, Sweden, and the United Kingdom. Now fans around the world can find more of the music […]

Will PR Finally Earn Its Stripes At Cannes This Year?
  • Opinion

Will PR Finally Earn Its Stripes At Cannes This Year?

In this guest post, Haystac’s national general manager, Jason Carnew (pictured below), says with all this talk of Cannes at this time of year, it’s a kindly reminder that the PR business needs to get its act together in terms of awards, work and judging… All eyes on are Cannes as some of the best […]

Opinion

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Ex-DDBer Unveils Designer Headscarves For Cancer Survivors
  • Campaigns

Ex-DDBer Unveils Designer Headscarves For Cancer Survivors

Two-times cancer survivor, Frankie Good Stuff Award Winner, ex-DDBer and founder of Bravery Co. Emily Somers has collaborated with a range of top-notch illustrators to produce Australia’s first range of designer headscarves for young cancer warriors. She is now crowdfunding $40,000 to produce the scarves and donate one to all the young women in their 20’s […]

New Advertising Platform Launches Down Under
  • Advertising

New Advertising Platform Launches Down Under

Following its massive success in Europe, Asia and the UAE, the Polishoe concept, which brings a high-demand shoe polish service and HD digital advertising platform together, has landed in Australia.

Women In Media Profile: Aimee Buchanan
  • Media

Women In Media Profile: Aimee Buchanan

No Women in Media series would be complete without the irrepressible Aimee Buchanan. Read all her pressibles here.

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Set for blue sky, different clouds icons, cloud shapes, labels, symbols, icons. Flat graphic vector elements
  • Technology

PubMatic Unveils Cloud for Publishers And Tech Companies

PubMatic has launched PubMatic Cloud for publishers and tech companies looking to implement and control their own programmatic technology. By accessing PubMatic’s technology, global infrastructure and demand connections on a platform-as-a-service (PaaS) basis, clients are able to achieve full transparency and achieve greater control over their programmatic monetization. As programmatic trading becomes mainstream, innovations such as […]

Women In Media Profile: Claudine Hall
  • Media

Women In Media Profile: Claudine Hall

The Women in Media Awards are back for 2018! To celebrate this wonderful fact, and to recognise some of the killer women in our industry, we’ve created a women in media series – and have profiled some pretty inspiring women so far. This week, we chat with Bauer Media head of trade marketing Claudine Hall. […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Cancer Council and Target Tradies Tackle On-The-Job Skin Cancer Risks
  • Campaigns

Cancer Council and Target Tradies Tackle On-The-Job Skin Cancer Risks

Workers on construction sites receive five to 10 times more UV exposure every year compared to indoor workers. Target Tradies and Cancer Council have announced the launch of a partnership to help educate Australian construction workers about the importance of being SunSmart at work. With evidence showing that outdoor workers receive five to 10 times […]