“2021: Facebook & Google Will Take ALL The Advertising Dollars & Everybody Else Will Be F@cked!”

“2021: Facebook & Google Will Take ALL The Advertising Dollars & Everybody Else Will Be F@cked!”
SHARE
THIS



On Monday B&T published a controversial piece about the merging of ad tech and mar tech. Here, B&T chats with the article’s author and eminent authority on the subject Andrew Birmingham and tries to uncover what it all means for local agencies. Yes, be VERY scared indeed, it’s a frightening new world that’ll take few prisoners…

Put simply, what actually is advertising tech (adtech) and marketing tech (martech)? Ad tech’s the stuff that serves and counts your paid advertising; the actual technology, the analytics. Martech’s direct marketing; things like emails, social, posts, the automation that controls all the campaigns.

Why merge the two? Because that’s what marketers want. The two have been separate beasts for the past 20 years but marketers want the one screen, the one dashboard to understand where their spend is going. Video’s the anomaly, it can be either/or.

When’s this all going to happen? It will take another five years for the martech firms to roll this stuff out. The big players – Salesforce, Adobe and Oracle – are all buying and building ad tech platforms into their systems.

Is it really all a play so Google and Facebook can soak up even more ad dollars? Yes, those two will dominate the advertising landscape. Remember, too, it’s not about the number of ads being produced it’s about how much money’s being spent. Take the US, in the first quarter this year Google and Facebook snared 85 per cent of all the new (digital) ad dollars that came into the market. 

How will this play out for local Aussie agencies? At present there are a heap of agencies offering ad tech; some they own and others they license. Increasingly a lot of the capability will end up inside Google and Facebook. Yes, there’ll be less providers and, yes, agencies will be working directly with two giants (Facebook and Google) who’ll control everything.

So that’s bad news then? Depends how you look at it. Do you want to put 80 per cent of your effort into two companies or 20 companies?

Will it hit agencies’ bottom lines hard? Agencies don’t care where the money gets spent so long as it gets spent. The next big thing for agencies will be (the next iteration) of programmatic. At the moment it still requires a lot of human intervention but it’ll be taken over by AI and machine learning and smart software. And as the past 20 years have shown, when it comes to humans and machines, the humans always lose. When it comes down to Google’s machine brain or people sitting at a buyer’s desk then Google will win every single time.

So it’s the beginning of the end of the media buyer then? A lot of people who buy advertising are stupid and make stupid decisions based on the data in front of them today and not what the data might look like tomorrow. That, in my books, is stupid

You appear to have a particular disdain for media buyers? If you refuse to buy into mobile campaigns at the moment because you think the cost or acquisitions are too high, and if you feel you can wait, say, three years for the cost of acquisition to halve and then jump in then, yes, you’re stupid. And the reason you won’t be able to get it at half the price is because the people who will are the ones in now and they’ll be building the capabilities to do it and you’ll be starting cold.

So if you aren’t in bed with Google or Facebook, you’d bloody want to be? At the moment, in Australia, digital is about 40 per cent of the total advertising spend. In the next five years it will be 50 per cent and could get there faster. And right now Google and Facebook have 50 per cent of that 40 per cent. And remember, Facebook in Australia is only really getting started; it’s barely even got going with Instagram. In five years’ time Google and Facebook will have 65 per cent of all digital spends in Australia.

By “Google” you basically mean search, yeah? Is the good old-fashioned creative ad going the way of the dodo then? There’s so much digital “noise” that brands need to make themselves more important not less important. If you want to charge $300 for a pair of sneakers you need to be have a pretty compelling case. It’s not all about the direct response (getting people to buy stuff), brands want to be fun, have a purpose in your life. Marketing’s still about being the top of the pile, top of mind over your competitor.

This all sounds bad news for creatives? Creatives love to think nothing beats their human genius but there’s a whole heap of companies like Adobe who are doing a stack of work on making ads made basically by computers. They’ll make tailor-made ads directly to suit the viewer in their favourite colours and models and style. It’s pretty clear that’s where the technology will take us in five to 10 years’ time.

In terms of agency land, who won’t survive in this new, rather daunting, landscape? What agencies offer to brands is a set of skills they can’t afford in-house. An agency that works with 50 clients get the benefits of what works across a broad spread. Given that Google and Facebook are going to be so utterly dominant in the coming years then an agency’s knowledge and expertise around how they can plug their clients into their systems is going to be critical.

Your advice to agencies? Tell your clients that they should be putting their money into things that look expensive today because you need to able to build the capabilities today because you’ll want to exploit them tomorrow. Mobile is a great example of that. Agencies who deal with the traditional media need to understand that money is going to shift out of things like free to air TV. Money will follow eyeballs and the money is flowing to the other channels. For example, more people are watching video and the money will naturally follow that.

If all the cash is going to Google and Facebook, that sounds like very bad news for the media companies then? The players that have typically driven media spend in Australia have been Fairfax, News Corp, APN, the radio stations etc. But by the time you take Google, Facebook, Seek, Realestate.com and Sensis; you take all the money that they’re going to get in digital advertising, then that leaves absolutely nothing for anyone else. They (the traditional media players) are all fucked and they know they’re fucked! They’ll be fighting over the scraps after Google and Facebook have taken what they want.

Please login with linkedin to comment

Advertising Standards Bureau

Latest News

Women In Media Profile: Kirsty Bloore
  • Media

Women In Media Profile: Kirsty Bloore

Bereft of any Monday motivation? Let today's Women in Media profile be like low-current electric waves to the brain.

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Arq Group Activates New Branding By Hulsbosch  
  • Media

Arq Group Activates New Branding By Hulsbosch  

Arq Group has launched a new identity created by award-winning agency Hulsbosch, with the business rebranding from Melbourne IT to Arq. Previously known as Melbourne IT, the company was founded in 1996 as one of Melbourne University’s commercial ventures with the sole rights to manage .au domains in the early days of the Internet. Melbourne IT […]

Adshel Unveils ANZ Takeover Via PHD
  • Campaigns
  • Media

Adshel Unveils ANZ Takeover Via PHD

ANZ, in partnership with PHD and Adshel, have taken to the streets with a total take-over of the entire Adshel Live network. For one hour, between 8am and 9am on Tuesday 19 June, ANZ is inviting commuters to download the new ANZ app by showing six different ways the app can help them manage their […]

Nine Launches Big Ideas Pop-Up Store
  • Media

Nine Launches Big Ideas Pop-Up Store

Nine has today launched a new pop-up store, The Big Ideas Store by 9Powered, which will host a series of events, workshops, research studies and guest speakers that demonstrate how Nine’s integrated business works to formulate better solutions to the challenges facing marketers. Over the next two weeks, The Big Ideas Store will highlight how […]

Gillian Armstrong: Adland’s Become “Brainwashed Into Thinking All Directors Have Beards”
  • Advertising

Gillian Armstrong: Adland’s Become “Brainwashed Into Thinking All Directors Have Beards”

Acclaimed Australian director Gillian Armstrong has launched a stinging attack on agency “boys’ club” that, she believes, continue to overlook female directors for TV campaigns. Armstrong, 67, cited stats that show half of all graduate directors leaving Aussie colleges are now female, they’re regularly cleaning-up in short film competitions, however, it’s not translating to directing work within the industry. Only about […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Carat & Initiative Share The Spoils In WA Government’s $65 Million Media Business
  • Media

Carat & Initiative Share The Spoils In WA Government’s $65 Million Media Business

IPG’s Initiative and Dentsu’s Carat have both been awarded a slice of the West Australian government’s $65 million spend. The government account is broken into two entities – campaign and non-campaign – each with its own agency roster. Carat has retained its long-standing position on the agency panel for all campaign work, which accounts for […]

A Golden Opportunity! Lucky Numbers For Sale!
  • Marketing
  • Partner Content

A Golden Opportunity! Lucky Numbers For Sale!

In case you missed it last week, a very lucky phone number – 1800 80 80 80 – is up for sale. And it could be yours!

Partner Content

by Customer Connect

The AppNexus Marketplace Launches Guaranteed Views
  • Technology

The AppNexus Marketplace Launches Guaranteed Views

AppNexus, the world’s leading independent advertising technology company, today announced the launch of Guaranteed Views, a marketplace product that changes the way advertising is bought and sold on the open internet. Guaranteed Views enables marketers and agencies to pay only for ads that are measured as viewable and is the first programmatic product that enables 100% viewable buying at scale outside of Facebook and Google.

Dentsu Aegis Network Predicts Australian Ad Spend Growth Of 2.8%
  • Marketing

Dentsu Aegis Network Predicts Australian Ad Spend Growth Of 2.8%

• Ad spend in Australia forecast to grow by 2.8% in 2018 , with main drivers of growth in Government, Retail, Finance and Gambling sectors. • Global advertising spend to grow by 3.9%, revised up from 3.6% in January 2018. • Digital to overtake TV for the first time, to reach 38.4% of global share (TV 35.5%). In 21 out of the 59 markets tracked, digital will be the leading advertising channel in 2018. • One quarter (25.2%) of global ad spend will be delivered through mobile devices for the first time.

Pac Mags Appoints New Client Strategy Director For Victoria
  • Media

Pac Mags Appoints New Client Strategy Director For Victoria

Seven West Media’s Pacific Magazines has announced the appointment of Emma Baston as client strategy director for Victoria. Baston has worked in senior digital media buying and planning roles at various agencies including UM Australia, Cummins&Partners and MindShare, with exposure across the strategy, communications and creative process. She has also worked at Facebook in a […]

Seamless pattern of a crowd of many different people profile heads. Vector background.
  • Media

SBS Launches Diverse Communities Content Initiative

SBS has launched the Short-Form Content Initiative, a commitment to providing increased opportunities for Australian creatives from diverse communities through the commissioning and production of content for SBS On Demand. SBS has partnered with five of Australia’s screen agencies, including Film Victoria, Create NSW, Screen Queensland, Screenwest and South Australian Film Corporation. The initiative aims […]

BIG W Unveils Toy Mania Via M&C Saatchi
  • Campaigns

BIG W Unveils Toy Mania Via M&C Saatchi

BIG W, the home for families, fun and entertainment, has today launched its annual toy sale campaign – Toy Mania. Running until 11 July, the campaign showcases the frenzy and hysteria that comes with the BIG W toy sale. It also highlights that buying toys can be just as fun as playing with them and […]

Datorama Launches AI-Supported Data Visualisation Tool ‘Data Canvas’
  • Technology

Datorama Launches AI-Supported Data Visualisation Tool ‘Data Canvas’

Datorama, a global technology company, today announced the launch of Data Canvas, a suite of new data visualisation capabilities within its Marketing Intelligence platform. Datorama Data Canvas leverages the power of artificial intelligence (AI) in a brand new way — to help marketers create expert-designed dashboards to tell compelling, data-driven stories. Datorama’s previous AI releases have […]

Who’s Looking The Goods At Cannes Lions 2018
  • Opinion

Who’s Looking The Goods At Cannes Lions 2018

In this opinion, Fjord lead Bronwyn van der Merwe (pictured below) discusses the work to look out for at Cannes Lions 2018. I fully expect there will be some staggering examples of creative brilliance at Cannes Lions this year, and I’d recommend anyone going resists having their attention pulled by projects that are largely based on […]

Opinion

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
We Are Social Acquires Socialize
  • Media

We Are Social Acquires Socialize

We Are Social has acquired Socialize; however, it will not be renamed We Are Socialize or even Margaret for that matter.

Global Marketing Player adm Appoints Country Manager For Australia & NZ
  • Marketing

Global Marketing Player adm Appoints Country Manager For Australia & NZ

International marketing services business adm Group Ltd has appointed Matt Cave as its country lead for Australia and New Zealand. Cave (pictured above) has more than 25 years of industry experience in the Asia-Pacific region, and will be instrumental in driving adm’s expansion throughout Australia and New Zealand. With 26 offices in 19 countries around […]

Weploy CMO Ben Eatwell: “We Want To Help Businesses Challenge The Status Quo”
  • Media
  • Technology

Weploy CMO Ben Eatwell: “We Want To Help Businesses Challenge The Status Quo”

Weploy began with a shared realisation between two friends that recruiting quality staff had become too complicated and it was high-time so declutter the process. Based in Melbourne, the start-up combines Tinder-style online skills-matching with Australian job market, and in doing so, rids eager employers of the strenuous – and at times incredibly uncomfortable – […]

Nielsen Acquires Sydney-Based Media Analysis Business Landsberry & James
  • Marketing

Nielsen Acquires Sydney-Based Media Analysis Business Landsberry & James

Nielsen has announced it has acquired Landsberry & James (L&J), a leading media analysis and software company based in Sydney, Australia. L&J designs, develops and markets software across the entire media analytics, planning, buying and post analysis process for television, digital, radio, advertising expenditure and advertising creatives. Nielsen’s investment in L&J enables an unparalleled and powerful […]

Pac Mags’ Home Beautiful Partners With Harvey Norman To Launch ‘Cooks Co-Op’
  • Marketing
  • Media

Pac Mags’ Home Beautiful Partners With Harvey Norman To Launch ‘Cooks Co-Op’

Home Beautiful and Harvey Norman have partnered on a new content series which will transform a quintessential Aussie shed into a field-to-fork restaurant whilst showcasing culinary local heroes. In 2012, Martin Boetz (pictured above, right) – the chef behind the cult following of Longrain during his 13-year stint – escaped the bustle of the big smoke […]

Music Feeds & Purple Sneakers Join Forces
  • Media

Music Feeds & Purple Sneakers Join Forces

Music Feeds and Purple Sneakers have unveiled a new strategic partnership that will allow music industry and direct advertisers to extend campaign bookings across all Purple Sneakers digital platforms when booking with Music Feeds. Founded in 2005 by Martin Novosel as a club brand and events company, Purple Sneakers is a key player in the Australian […]

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine
Headway & App Annie Get Ready For FIFA 2018
  • Media
  • Technology

Headway & App Annie Get Ready For FIFA 2018

Headway, the leading data-driven media buying company, has teamed up with market data and insights company AppAnnie. Together, the companies have unveiled The App Marketer’s Guide to the World Cup – a whitepaper designed to help app marketers succeed. Every year, flagship sporting events are breaking the internet with increasing viewership and the 2018 FIFA World Cup […]

Twitter Makes In-Stream Video Ads Available To All
  • Advertising
  • Media

Twitter Makes In-Stream Video Ads Available To All

Social media giant Twitter has announced it’s making in-stream video ads available to all advertisers – including self-serve – across 12 markets, including Australia. The popular video format attaches pre-roll content in front of premium publisher videos and highlights. The 12 international markets where Twitter’s in-stream ads will be available are Australia, Brazil, Canada, France, […]

Australian Alliance For Data Leadership Appoints New CEO
  • Advertising
  • Marketing

Australian Alliance For Data Leadership Appoints New CEO

The Australian Alliance for Data Leadership (AADL) has announced the appointment of credentialled senior executive Stephen Porges as its new CEO. Porges currently sits on a number of company boards, has considerable public and private sector listed company management expertise, and has been instrumental in successful data-driven businesses. He also brings CEO skills gained at […]

Business , Nicola Lewis poses for a portrait in Surry Hills. Lewis is being appointed to run WPP's GroupM in Australia and New Zealand.  
Pic Jenny Evans
  • Media

Women In Media Profile: Nicola Lewis

GroupM investment chief Nicola Lewis is grilled in latest Women in Media profile. It's more a gentle simmer, really.

by B&T Magazine

B&T Magazine